Bitcoin Futures Analysis BTCUSDT - November 26 2024

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BTC/USDT Futures Trading Analysis - November 26, 2024

1. Introduction

On November 26, 2024, the BTC/USDT pair exhibited high volatility, driven by recent macroeconomic developments. According to data from Investing.com, key factors influencing the market include expected U.S. inflation data and Federal Reserve interest rate decisions. These events could significantly impact investor sentiment.

At the time of writing:

  • **BTC spot price:** 94,526.58 USD (down 3.57% in the past 24 hours).
  • **BTC/USDT futures price on Binance:** 94,558.10 USD.
  • **24-hour trading volume:** 84.91 billion USD.

2. Technical Analysis

On the daily chart, BTC/USDT shows signs of correction following recent gains.

  • Moving Averages (MA and EMA):
 * MA50: 90,000 USD.
 * MA200: 80,000 USD.
 * EMA50: 92,000 USD.
 * EMA200: 82,000 USD.
 These levels serve as key support zones.
  • Indicators:
 * RSI: 55, indicating a neutral market position.
 * MACD shows a potential bearish crossover, suggesting continued correction.
  • Fibonacci Levels:
 * Key retracement levels: 92,000 USD (38.2%), 90,000 USD (50%), 88,000 USD (61.8%).
  • Bollinger Bands:
 The price is near the median line, indicating consolidation.
  • ATR: 1,200 USD – suggests moderate market volatility.
  • Elliott Wave Analysis: BTC/USDT is likely in a corrective phase following the completion of an impulsive wave.

3. Volume Analysis

  • Open Interest:
 * The total open interest is 6.0 billion USD, with 60% in long positions.
  • Liquidations:
 * November 25, 2024: 0.5 billion USD liquidated (300 million USD long positions, 200 million USD short positions).
 * November 26, 2024: 0.45 billion USD liquidated (250 million USD long positions, 200 million USD short positions).
  • Options:
 * Next expiry date: November 30, 2024.
 * Open interest volume: 1.5 billion USD.
 * Call/Put ratio: 1.2, indicating a predominantly bullish sentiment.
 * Max Pain level: 93,000 USD.
 * Key strike prices: 90,000 USD, 95,000 USD, 100,000 USD.

4. Forecast and Strategy

Based on current data, it is recommended to consider opening a long position.

  • Entry point: 94,000 USD.
  • Exit point: 98,000 USD.
  • Stop-loss: 92,000 USD.

Example with a capital of 1,000 USDT and 20x leverage:

  • Position size: 20,000 USD.
  • Potential profit: 4,000 USD (+20%).
  • Potential loss: 2,000 USD (-10%).
  • Risk/reward ratio: 1:2.

5. Fundamental Analysis

  • Macroeconomic Factors:
 * Fed decisions on interest rates and inflation data play a critical role. A dovish policy could support BTC growth, while a hawkish policy might lead to declines.
 * A weakening USD boosts demand for cryptocurrencies as alternative assets.
  • Institutional Activity:
 * Over the past 24 hours, institutional investors executed transactions worth 2.0 billion USD. The highest activity was observed on platforms like CME and Bakkt.

6. Liquidations and Heatmap

According to Coinglass data, key liquidation levels are:

  • Level 93,000 USD: short positions liquidation zone.
  • Level 96,000 USD: long positions liquidation zone.

This data is validated by the liquidation heatmap visualization. Liquidation Heatmap.

7. Publication Sponsor

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