Bitcoin Futures Analysis BTCUSDT - November 22 2024

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BTC/USDT Futures Trading Analysis - November 22, 2024

1. Introduction

As of November 22, 2024, the BTC/USDT pair shows significant volatility, reflecting current macroeconomic events. According to Investing.com, inflation data from the United States was released today, and statements from the Federal Reserve regarding interest rates are anticipated. These events could have a major impact on the dynamics of the cryptocurrency market.

The current BTC spot price is 98,871.00 USD, an increase of 1,605.00 USD (+1.65%) compared to the previous close. The BTC/USDT futures price on the Binance platform is 98,900.00 USD, reflecting optimistic market sentiment.

Trading volume over the past 24 hours reached 50 billion USD, indicating significant trader interest in this pair.

2. Technical Analysis

On the daily timeframe, the BTC/USDT pair demonstrates an upward trend.

Moving Averages (MA and EMA):

  • MA50: 95,000 USD
  • MA200: 85,000 USD
  • EMA50: 96,000 USD
  • EMA200: 87,000 USD

Indicators:

  • RSI: 70 (overbought zone)
  • MACD: positive crossover, signaling the potential continuation of the upward movement.

Fibonacci Levels:

  • 38.2%: 92,000 USD
  • 50%: 90,000 USD
  • 61.8%: 88,000 USD

Bollinger Bands: The price is above the middle line, suggesting a possible continuation of the upward movement.

ATR: The Average True Range (ATR) indicator is at 2,500, confirming high activity in the market.

VWAP: The current price is above the VWAP level, emphasizing the positive market sentiment.

Elliott Wave Analysis: BTC/USDT is in the third wave of an impulsive movement, which is typically accompanied by strong upward momentum.

Patterns: On the hourly timeframe, a "Head and Shoulders" pattern is forming, which may indicate a potential local correction.

3. Volume Analysis

Open Interest:

  • Total open interest: 5 billion USD
  • Long positions: 60%
  • Short positions: 40%

Liquidations:

  • November 21, 2024: 350 million USD
 * Long positions: 200 million USD
 * Short positions: 150 million USD
  • November 22, 2024: 300 million USD
 * Long positions: 180 million USD
 * Short positions: 120 million USD

Options:

  • Expiration date: November 25, 2024
  • Open Interest Volume: 1 billion USD
  • Call/Put Ratio: 1.2
  • "Max Pain" Level: 95,000 USD
  • Key Strike Prices: 90,000 USD, 95,000 USD, 100,000 USD

4. Forecast and Strategy

Based on current technical and volume data, it is recommended to consider opening a long position.

Entry Point: 98,500 USD Exit Point: 102,000 USD Stop-loss: 96,000 USD

Example:

  • Capital: 1,000 USDT
  • Leverage: 20x
  • Position size: 20,000 USD
  • Potential profit: 3,500 USD (+17.5%)
  • Potential loss: 2,500 USD (-12.5%)
  • Risk/reward ratio: 1:1.4

Recommendation: Open a position only after confirmation of an upward movement (e.g., a close above 99,000 USD on the hourly timeframe).

5. Fundamental Analysis

Macroeconomic Events: The Federal Reserve's decisions on interest rates and inflation data play a key role in the current dynamics. If the Fed maintains a hawkish stance, this could pressure the crypto market. However, more dovish statements could support a BTC rally. Additionally, a weakening dollar boosts interest in cryptocurrencies as safe-haven assets.

Data from Major Players: Institutional investors executed transactions worth 1.5 billion USD over the last 24 hours. The highest activity was observed on platforms such as CME and Bakkt. The increase in open interest on Binance Futures also confirms confidence in the continuation of the upward trend.

6. Liquidations and Heatmap Analysis

According to data from Coinglass, the following key levels stand out on the liquidation heatmap:

  • Level 95,000 USD – zone of concentrated liquidations of short positions.
  • Level 99,500 USD – zone of liquidations of long positions, which may act as resistance.

The frequency of liquidations at levels 95,000 USD and 100,000 USD indicates increased activity and interest among market participants. These levels can be used as reference points for determining entry or exit points.

Visualization of the liquidation heatmap: ![Liquidation Heatmap(https://i.ibb.co/rMyfVcJ/Binance-BTC-USDT-Liquidation-Heatmap-3-day-2024-11-22-07-59-58.png)]

7. Sponsor of the Publication

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