Bitcoin Futures Analysis BTCUSDT - November 21 2024

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Daily BTC/USDT Market Analysis – November 21, 2024

1. Introduction

As of November 21, 2024, the cryptocurrency market continues to display a strong upward trend. The spot price of Bitcoin (BTC) is 97,360 USD, reflecting a 3.25% increase over the past 24 hours.

The futures price of BTC/USDT on Binance is currently trading at 97,360 USD.

The total trading volume over the last 24 hours is 42.5 billion USD, indicating strong interest from market participants.

A key economic event this week is the release of US inflation data, which could significantly impact the price movements of risky assets such as BTC.

2. Technical Analysis

Based on daily and hourly timeframes, the current key levels are as follows:

  • Support levels: 93,000 USD, 90,000 USD
  • Resistance levels: 100,000 USD, 105,000 USD

Trend indicators:

  • MA (50): 95,000 USD
  • MA (200): 90,000 USD

The RSI indicator shows a value of 71, signaling an overbought condition. MACD confirms the upward trend with a bullish crossover. Bollinger Bands have widened, indicating increased volatility, while ATR confirms an expanded range of price movements.

Fibonacci retracement levels:

  • 38.2%: 94,000 USD
  • 50%: 92,000 USD
  • 61.8%: 90,000 USD

Elliott Wave analysis suggests that the fourth corrective wave has concluded, and the fifth impulsive wave has begun, confirming the continuation of the upward trend.

3. Volume Analysis

The total liquidation volume over the last 24 hours was approximately 650 million USD:

  • Long position liquidations: 350 million USD
  • Short position liquidations: 300 million USD

Liquidation analysis based on Coinglass: ![Liquidation Heatmap(https://i.ibb.co/Cz2rzBf/Binance-BTC-USDT-Liquidation-Heatmap-48-hour-2024-11-21-08-09-21.png)]

The heatmap shows a concentration of liquidations in the 94,000–98,000 USD range, which could serve as critical zones for planning trading strategies.

4. Forecast and Strategy

Given the current market conditions and indicators, opening long positions is recommended.

Example strategy with a capital of 1,000 USDT and 20x leverage:

  • Entry point: 96,500 USD
  • Take-profit: 100,000 USD
  • Stop-loss: 94,500 USD

Potential profit/loss calculation:

  • Potential profit: (($100,000 - $96,500) / $96,500) * 20 * 1000 = 724.64 USD
  • Potential loss: (($96,500 - $94,500) / $96,500) * 20 * 1000 = 414.53 USD

Risk/reward ratio: 1:1.75.

5. Fundamental Analysis

The release of US inflation data and the possibility of monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve may temporarily increase market volatility. Additionally, institutional investment inflows through Bitcoin ETFs continue to grow, supporting the overall upward trend.

According to Deribit data, the "Max Pain" level for options is set at 97,000 USD, which could temporarily limit price movements.

6. Conclusion

The BTC/USDT market demonstrates strong bullish dynamics, creating favorable conditions for opening long positions. It is essential to consider the heightened volatility and apply prudent risk management.

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