Bitcoin Futures Analysis BTCUSDT - November 18 2024

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BTC/USDT Futures Trading Analysis - November 18, 2024

1. Introduction

The current cryptocurrency market is marked by significant volatility, influenced by recent economic events. Last week, US inflation data showed a 0.5% increase in October, exceeding analysts' expectations. This raised concerns about potential tightening of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve, impacting the dynamics of the BTC/USDT pair.

  • **Current BTC/USDT spot price:** 90,518.21 USD, up 0.08% over the last 24 hours.
  • **Current BTC/USDT futures price:** 90,456.00 USD, reflecting market expectations of the asset's future value.

The trading volume over the past 24 hours reached 43.77 billion USD, indicating strong interest in bitcoin.

2. Technical Analysis

On the daily timeframe, bitcoin shows an upward trend.

Moving Averages (MA and EMA):

  • **MA50:** 85,000 USD (support)
  • **MA200:** 70,000 USD (support)
  • **EMA50:** 86,000 USD (support)
  • **EMA200:** 72,000 USD (support)

Indicators:

  • **RSI:** 68 (near overbought zone)
  • **MACD:** Positive crossover, indicating potential continued growth.

Fibonacci Levels:

  • **0.618:** 88,000 USD (support)
  • **0.786:** 92,000 USD (resistance)

Bollinger Bands:

  • Band expansion indicates increasing volatility.

ATR (Average True Range):

  • An ATR value of 1,500 indicates high volatility.

VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price):

  • The current price is above VWAP, confirming the upward trend.

Elliott Wave Analysis:

  • Bitcoin is in the third wave of the impulse, suggesting a continuation of the upward trend.

Patterns:

  • A "flag" pattern is forming on the hourly chart, indicating potential further upward movement.

3. Volume Analysis

  • **Open Interest:** Open interest in bitcoin futures is 10 billion USD, with a dominance of long positions, indicating positive market sentiment.
  • **Liquidations:** Over the past 24 hours, 500 million USD worth of positions were liquidated, with 60% being short positions, confirming buyer dominance.
  • **Options:** The next expiration date for bitcoin options is November 25, 2024, with a total open interest of 2 billion USD.
  • **Bitcoin ETFs:** Bitcoin ETF trading volumes increased by 10% over the past week, signaling growing institutional interest.

4. Forecast and Strategy

Based on the current analysis, opening a long position is recommended.

  • **Position:** Long
  • **Entry Point:** 90,500 USD
  • **Exit Point:** 95,000 USD
  • **Stop-loss:** 89,000 USD
  • **Capital:** 1000 USDT
  • **Leverage:** 20x

If successful, the potential profit is 3,800 USDT (380%), with a risk of 2,200 USDT (220%).

5. Fundamental Analysis

  • **Macroeconomic Factors:** Rising US inflation strengthens expectations of tighter monetary policy by the Federal Reserve, which could pressure riskier assets, including bitcoin.
  • **Large Transactions:** Over the past 24 hours, several large bitcoin purchases exceeding 1,000 BTC were recorded, showing continued interest from major investors.

6. Links Úteis e Patrocinados

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