Bitcoin Futures Analysis BTCUSDT - November 13 2024

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BTC/USDT Futures Trading Analysis for November 13, 2024

1. Introduction

On November 13, 2024, the cryptocurrency market is showing significant activity, especially in the BTC/USDT pair. Bitcoin's spot price is 87,395.22 USD, down 0.5% compared to the previous day, while the futures price on Binance is 87,489.20 USD.

The trading volume over the past 24 hours reached 122.17 billion USD, reflecting strong interest from market participants.

The recent decision by the U.S. Federal Reserve to reduce the base interest rate to 4.5-4.75% continues to impact the crypto market, making it more attractive for long-term investments.

2. Technical Analysis

Support and Resistance Levels:

  • Daily Timeframe:
 * Support: 85,000 USD
 * Resistance: 90,000 USD
  • Hourly Timeframe:
 * Support: 86,000 USD
 * Resistance: 88,500 USD

Technical Indicators:

  • Moving Averages (MA):
 * MA50: 86,500 USD — the current price is above this average, indicating an upward trend.
 * MA200: 84,000 USD — the price is also above the MA200, confirming a long-term bullish trend.
  • Relative Strength Index (RSI): 65 — signals a neutral zone but is approaching overbought levels.
  • MACD: The lines are crossing upwards, indicating a potential short-term bullish trend.
  • Fibonacci Levels: The 0.618 retracement level is around 85,500 USD, which could be a reversal point if the price drops.
  • Bollinger Bands: The bands have expanded, indicating increased volatility.
  • VWAP: The current price is above the VWAP level, confirming a short-term upward trend.
  • Elliott Wave Analysis: The BTC/USDT pair is in the third wave of an upward trend, typically the strongest phase.
  • Chart Patterns: A “Head and Shoulders” pattern is forming, which could signal a potential trend reversal if broken downward.

3. Volume Analysis

  • Open Interest: Open interest is increasing, indicating growth in new positions in the market.
  • Liquidations: Over the past 24 hours, positions worth 500 million USD have been liquidated, indicating high volatility.
  • Options: The next expiration date for options is November 15, 2024, with large volumes at strike levels of 85,000 USD and 90,000 USD.
  • Bitcoin ETF: Trading volume in Bitcoin ETFs has reached 38 billion USD, highlighting growing interest from institutional investors.

4. Forecast and Strategy

Recommendation: Long position.

  • Entry Point: 87,000 USD
  • Exit Point: 90,000 USD
  • Stop-Loss: 85,500 USD

Example Trade:

  • Capital: 1000 USDT
  • Leverage: 20x
  • Position Size: 20,000 USDT

Profit Calculation:

  • If Target is Reached: 3,000 USD in leveraged profit, resulting in a net gain of 3,000 USD.
  • If Stop-Loss Triggers: The loss would be 1,500 USD.

5. Fundamental Analysis

The Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut could stimulate Bitcoin’s growth as an alternative asset, as traditional financial instruments lose appeal for investors. The increase in Bitcoin ETF trading volume and open interest also supports positive market expectations.

6. Links Úteis e Patrocinados

7. Current S&P 500 Price

At the time of writing, the S&P 500 index stands at 6,003.50 USD, reflecting stability in traditional financial markets.

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