Bitcoin Futures Analysis BTCUSDT - November 11 2024

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BTC/USDT Futures Trading Analysis for November 11, 2024

1. Introduction

On November 11, 2024, the cryptocurrency market is displaying significant activity, especially in the BTC/USDT pair. The spot price of Bitcoin is 81,303.53 USD, reflecting an increase of 5.1% over the past 24 hours. The futures price on Binance Futures has reached 81,280.80 USD, indicating a positive sentiment among traders.

The trading volume in the past 24 hours is 84.62 billion USD, showing strong interest from market participants.

The recent decision by the Federal Reserve to lower the base interest rate to 4.5–4.75% may have contributed to increased interest in cryptocurrencies as an alternative investment.

2. Technical Analysis

On the daily chart, Bitcoin shows a stable upward trend.

Moving Averages (MA and EMA):

  • The 50-day EMA is above the 200-day EMA, confirming an uptrend.

RSI and MACD Indicators:

  • The RSI is approaching the overbought zone, suggesting a potential correction.
  • The MACD continues to rise, confirming the strength of the current trend.

Fibonacci Levels:

  • A correction to the 61.8% level is possible around 75,000 USD, which could act as support.

Bollinger Bands and ATR:

  • The expansion of the Bollinger Bands and increase in ATR indicate higher volatility.

VWAP:

  • The price is above the VWAP, confirming a bullish market sentiment.

Elliott Wave Analysis:

  • Bitcoin is likely in the third impulse wave, suggesting further upside.

Patterns:

  • A “flag” pattern on the hourly chart may indicate a continuation of the upward movement.

3. Volume Analysis

  • Open Interest:
 * According to Coinglass, open interest in Bitcoin futures has increased, indicating a rise in new positions.
  • Liquidation Data:
 * Significant short position liquidations occurred over the past 24 hours, contributing to the price increase.
  • Options:
 * The next options expiration date is November 15, 2024, with high volumes at strike prices of 80,000 USD and 85,000 USD, which may influence volatility.
  • Bitcoin ETF:
 * ETF buying volumes for Bitcoin are rising, reflecting growing interest from institutional investors.

4. Forecast and Strategy

Based on the current analysis, a long position (buy) is preferred.

Recommendations:

  • Entry Point: On a breakout above the 82,000 USD level.
  • Exit Point: Around the 85,000 USD level.
  • Stop-Loss: Set at 79,000 USD.

Example with a 1,000 USDT Capital and a 20x Leverage:

  • Position Size: 20,000 USDT.
  • Potential Profit: If the target is reached — 731.71 USD.
  • Potential Loss: If the stop-loss is triggered — 731.71 USD.

This risk-to-reward ratio (1:1) is acceptable for this strategy.

5. Fundamental Analysis

The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut to 4.5–4.75% may encourage investors to seek higher-yielding assets, such as cryptocurrencies.

Large investors continue to increase their Bitcoin positions, confirmed by rising volumes on institutional platforms.

6. Links Úteis e Patrocinados

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