BTC/USDT Futures Trading Analysis - 9 November 2025
Market Overview
As of 9 November 2025, the BTC/USDT futures market is showing a slight bearish bias. The current spot price is $101,838.16, while the futures price is trading slightly lower at $101,818.70, reflecting a 24-hour change of -0.46%. The intraday high was recorded at $102,733.83, and the low touched $101,400.00, indicating a relatively tight trading range. This suggests a period of consolidation as traders assess the next directional move.
Technical Analysis
Moving averages and momentum indicators provide a mixed outlook. The 50-day Moving Average (MA) is at $102,056.90, while the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is slightly higher at $102,174.91, indicating a near-term resistance zone. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is neutral at 50.06, reflecting a balance between buying and selling pressure. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is in negative territory at -106.44, signaling bearish momentum.
Fibonacci Retracement
Using the recent swing high of $102,733.83 and the swing low of $101,400.00, the key Fibonacci levels are: - 23.6%: $101,798.90 - 38.2%: $101,927.66 - 50%: $102,066.92 - 61.8%: $102,206.18
The price is currently hovering near the 23.6% retracement level, which could act as support.
Bollinger Bands
The Bollinger Bands show the price trading near the middle band, indicating a neutral trend. The upper band is at $102,900.00, and the lower band is at $101,200.00, suggesting potential breakout points.
Average True Range (ATR)
The Average True Range (ATR) is at $1,200, indicating moderate volatility. This suggests that the market could see significant moves if a breakout occurs.
Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP)
The Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) is at $101,950.00, acting as a pivot level. A sustained move below this level could signal further downside.
Elliott Wave Analysis
The Elliott Wave pattern suggests we are in Wave 4 of a larger corrective structure. This wave is typically characterized by sideways movement, aligning with the current consolidation phase. A breakout below $101,400.00 could indicate the start of Wave 5, targeting lower levels.
Trading Strategy
Based on the technical analysis, here’s a potential trading strategy:
- **Position**: Short - **Entry Point**: $101,800.00 (near the 23.6% Fibonacci level) - **Stop-Loss**: $102,200.00 (above the 50% Fibonacci level) - **Take-Profit**: $100,500.00 (near the psychological support level) - **Position Size**: 1% of the trading capital - **Risk/Reward Ratio**: 1:3
The rationale for this strategy is the bearish MACD, neutral RSI, and the price trading below key moving averages. The stop-loss is placed above the 50% Fibonacci level to account for potential reversals, while the take-profit target aligns with the next significant support level.
⚠️ *Disclaimer: This analysis is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. It is recommended to conduct your own research before making investment decisions.* ⚠️
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