BTC/USDT Futures Trading Analysis - 7 December 2025

BTC/USDT Futures Trading Analysis - 7 December 2025

1. Market Overview

As of 7 December 2025, the BTC/USDT futures market is showing slight bearish momentum, with the current futures price trading at **$89,508.30**, slightly below the spot price of **$89,564.32**. The 24-hour change stands at **-0.05%**, indicating minor consolidation after recent volatility. The intraday high was **$90,289.97**, while the low touched **$88,908.01**, suggesting a relatively tight trading range.

Key observations: - The futures price is trading below the spot price, indicating mild bearish sentiment. - The narrow price range suggests indecision among traders. - Volume has been average, with no significant spikes in buying or selling pressure.

2. Technical Analysis

Moving Averages

class="wikitable"
Indicator	Value
MA(50)	$89,993.39
EMA(50)	$90,045.61

The price is currently below both the **MA(50)** and **EMA(50)**, signaling short-term bearish momentum. The EMA is slightly above the MA, indicating that recent price action has been weaker.

Oscillators

class="wikitable"
Indicator	Value
RSI (14)	38.37
MACD	-124.80

- The **RSI (14)** is at **38.37**, nearing oversold territory but not yet signaling a reversal. - The **MACD** is negative at **-124.80**, with the histogram showing bearish momentum.

Additional Indicators

• • Fibonacci Retracement** (from recent swing high $92,500 to swing low $87,200):

- Key levels to watch:

 - 23.6%: $88,950  
 - 38.2%: $89,650  
 - 50%: $89,850  

The price is currently hovering near the **38.2% retracement level**, which could act as resistance.

• • Bollinger Bands**:

- The price is near the lower band, suggesting potential oversold conditions. - Band width is narrowing, indicating reduced volatility.

• • ATR (14)**: **$1,200**

- The average true range suggests moderate volatility, with potential for larger moves if a breakout occurs.

• • VWAP**: **$89,750**

- The current price is below the VWAP, reinforcing short-term bearish bias.

• • Elliott Wave Analysis**:

- The market appears to be in a corrective **Wave 4** after an impulsive **Wave 3** upward. - A break below **$88,900** could confirm a **Wave 5** downward.

3. Trading Strategy

Given the current technical setup, here’s a potential trading strategy:

• • Position**: **Short** (with caution, as the market is nearing oversold levels)
  • Entry Point**: **$89,500 - $89,700** (near EMA and Fibonacci resistance)
  • Stop-Loss**: **$90,300** (above recent swing high)
  • Take-Profit Targets**:

- TP1: **$88,900** (near intraday low) - TP2: **$88,000** (next support level)

• • Position Size**: 1-2% of capital per trade
  • Risk/Reward Ratio**: 1:2 (conservative) or 1:3 (aggressive)

Key Considerations

- Watch for a potential bounce from the lower Bollinger Band. - A break above **$90,300** could invalidate the bearish setup. - Monitor volume spikes for confirmation of directional moves.

Final Thoughts

The BTC/USDT futures market is in a short-term bearish phase, but traders should remain cautious as oversold conditions may lead to a reversal. Key levels to watch are **$88,900** (support) and **$89,700** (resistance). Always manage risk appropriately and adjust positions based on real-time market developments.

⚠️ *Disclaimer: This analysis is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. It is recommended to conduct your own research before making investment decisions.* ⚠️

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