BTC/USDT Futures Trading Analysis - 5 November 2025
Market Overview
As of 5 November 2025, the Bitcoin (BTC) market is showing signs of volatility, with the current spot price at $102,173.63 and the futures price slightly lower at $102,120.30. The market has experienced a 24-hour change of -4.29%, indicating a bearish sentiment. The intraday high of $107,299.00 and low of $98,944.36 suggest significant price swings within the day, reflecting uncertainty among traders.
Technical Analysis
Let’s dive into the key technical indicators to better understand the current market dynamics.
Moving Averages
{ class="wikitable" ! Indicator ! Value |- | MA(50) | $105,097.58 |- | EMA(50) | $104,608.83 |} The 50-day Moving Average (MA) and Exponential Moving Average (EMA) are both above the current spot price, indicating a bearish trend. This suggests that the market is under selling pressure.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI (14) is currently at 40.70, which is below the neutral level of 50. This indicates that BTC is in the oversold territory, potentially signaling a buying opportunity if the market stabilizes.
MACD
The MACD value is -1,211.79, with the MACD line below the signal line. This confirms the bearish momentum in the market.
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
Using the intraday high and low, the key Fibonacci retracement levels are: { class="wikitable" ! Level ! Price |- | 23.6% | $100,523.12 |- | 38.2% | $101,621.74 |- | 50% | $102,621.68 |- | 61.8% | $103,621.62 |} These levels can act as potential support and resistance zones.
Bollinger Bands
The Bollinger Bands show that the price is near the lower band, indicating oversold conditions. A reversal or consolidation may occur if the price stabilizes.
Average True Range (ATR)
The ATR is currently high, reflecting increased volatility. Traders should be cautious and adjust their position sizes accordingly.
Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP)
The VWAP is currently at $103,450.21, which is above the spot price. This suggests that the market is bearish in the short term.
Elliott Wave Analysis
Based on Elliott Wave Theory, BTC appears to be in a corrective wave (Wave 4) after a recent impulsive move. This aligns with the current bearish sentiment.
Trading Strategy
Given the current market conditions, here’s a potential trading strategy:
Position
Given the bearish indicators, a short position is recommended.
Entry Point
Enter at the current futures price of $102,120.30 or wait for a retest of the 38.2% Fibonacci level at $101,621.74 for better risk management.
Stop-Loss
Set a stop-loss at $104,000, just above the 50% Fibonacci level, to limit potential losses.
Take-Profit
Aim for a take-profit level at $98,500, near the intraday low, to capture the downside potential.
Position Size
Allocate no more than 2% of your total capital to this trade, given the high volatility.
Risk/Reward Ratio
The risk/reward ratio is approximately 1:2, which is favorable for this trade.
Conclusion
The BTC/USDT futures market is currently bearish, with key indicators such as moving averages, MACD, and RSI supporting this sentiment. Traders should exercise caution due to high volatility and consider the provided strategy to navigate the market effectively.
⚠️ *Disclaimer: This analysis is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. It is recommended to conduct your own research before making investment decisions.* ⚠️
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