BTC/USDT Futures Trading Analysis - 4 November 2025
Market Overview
As of 4 November 2025, the BTC/USDT futures market is showing a slight bearish sentiment. The current spot price stands at $107,298.99, while the futures price is slightly lower at $107,225.00, indicating a small backwardation. Over the past 24 hours, the market has experienced a minor decline of 0.29%, with an intraday high of $108,333.00 and a low of $105,306.56. This suggests a consolidation phase after recent volatility, with traders cautiously evaluating the next directional move.
Technical Analysis
Moving Averages
The 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) is currently at $108,687.82, while the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is at $108,172.92. Both indicators are above the current price, signaling potential resistance levels. The price is struggling to break above these averages, indicating a bearish bias in the short term.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 45.19, which is in the neutral zone. This suggests that the market is neither overbought nor oversold, but the slight downward momentum could hint at further bearish pressure.
MACD
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is -463.77, with the MACD line below the signal line. This confirms the bearish momentum observed in the market. Traders should watch for a crossover above the signal line for a potential reversal signal.
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
Using the recent swing high of $110,000.00 and the swing low of $104,000.00, the key Fibonacci retracement levels are:
| Level | Price |
|---|---|
| 0.236 | $107,424.00 |
| 0.382 | $108,272.00 |
| 0.50 | $109,000.00 |
The price is currently hovering near the 0.236 level, which could act as support. A break below this level might lead to a test of the 0.382 level.
Bollinger Bands
The Bollinger Bands show the price trading near the lower band, indicating potential oversold conditions. However, the bands are narrowing, suggesting reduced volatility and a possible breakout in the near future.
Average True Range (ATR)
The 14-period Average True Range (ATR) is $1,200.00, indicating moderate volatility. Traders should adjust their position sizes accordingly to manage risk.
Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP)
The Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) is $107,500.00, slightly above the current price. This suggests that the market is trading below the average price, reinforcing the bearish sentiment.
Elliott Wave Analysis
Based on Elliott Wave Theory, the market appears to be in Wave 3 of a larger corrective structure. This wave is typically the most extended and volatile, aligning with the current price action. Traders should watch for a completion of this wave before considering a reversal.
Trading Strategy
Based on the technical indicators and analysis, here is a recommended trading strategy:
Position
Short Position: Given the bearish momentum and resistance levels, a short position is favored.
Entry Point
Enter near the current price of $107,225.00 or on a retest of the 0.236 Fibonacci level at $107,424.00.
Stop Loss
Set a stop-loss at $108,500.00, slightly above the 50-day EMA, to minimize risk in case of a sudden reversal.
Take Profit
Target the next support level at $105,000.00, aligning with the intraday low and psychological support.
Position Size
Allocate no more than 2% of your portfolio to this trade to manage risk effectively.
Risk/Reward Ratio
The risk/reward ratio is approximately 1:2, offering a favorable setup for this trade.
⚠️ *Disclaimer: This analysis is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. It is recommended to conduct your own research before making investment decisions.* ⚠️
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