BTC/USDT Futures Trading Analysis - 3 February 2026
Market Overview
As of 3 February 2026, the BTC/USDT futures market is showing strong bullish momentum, with the current spot price at $78,664.10 and the futures price slightly lower at $78,625.00. The market has experienced a significant 24-hour change of +4.19%, reflecting heightened buying pressure. The intraday high reached $79,360.00, while the low dipped to $74,911.14, indicating considerable volatility. This price action suggests that traders are actively engaging with the market, driven by both speculative and institutional interest.
Technical Analysis
Moving Averages
The 50-day Moving Average (MA(50)) stands at $77,918.48, while the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA(50)) is slightly higher at $78,588.47. The futures price is currently trading above both averages, signaling a bullish trend. The EMA’s closer proximity to the price indicates faster reaction to recent price movements, reinforcing the upward momentum.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI (14) is at 56.87, which is in the neutral zone but leaning towards bullish territory. This suggests that while the market is not overbought, there is room for further upward movement before reaching overbought conditions.
Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD)
The MACD value is 236.93, showing a strong bullish crossover. This indicates that the short-term momentum is outpacing the long-term momentum, further supporting the bullish outlook.
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
Using the intraday low ($74,911.14) and high ($79,360.00) as reference points, the key Fibonacci retracement levels are:
| Level | Price |
|---|---|
| 23.6% | $77,952.80 |
| 38.2% | $77,308.50 |
| 50% | $76,835.57 |
| 61.8% | $76,362.64 |
The price is currently holding above the 23.6% level, which acts as a support zone. A break below this level could signal a short-term pullback.
Bollinger Bands
The Bollinger Bands show the price trading near the upper band, indicating high volatility and a potential continuation of the bullish trend. However, traders should be cautious of a possible mean reversion if the price deviates too far from the middle band.
Average True Range (ATR)
The ATR is currently at 1,245.67, reflecting significant volatility. This suggests that traders should adjust their position sizes to account for wider price swings.
Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP)
The VWAP is at $77,890.23, slightly below the current price. This indicates that the market is trading at a premium compared to the average price, reinforcing the bullish sentiment.
Elliott Wave Analysis
The Elliott Wave pattern suggests that Bitcoin is in Wave 3 of a larger bullish impulse wave. This wave is typically the strongest and longest, indicating potential for further upside. Traders should look for confirmations of Wave 3 continuation, such as higher highs and higher lows.
Trading Strategy
Position Recommendation
Given the bullish indicators, a long position is recommended. Traders should look for opportunities to enter the market on pullbacks to maximize risk/reward.
Entry Point
An ideal entry point would be near the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at $77,952.80, which aligns with the MA(50) and EMA(50) support zones.
Stop-Loss
A stop-loss should be placed just below the 38.2% Fibonacci level at $77,200.00 to minimize potential losses if the market reverses.
Take-Profit
The take-profit target should be set near the recent intraday high at $79,360.00. Traders can also consider scaling out partial positions as the price approaches this level.
Position Size
Position size should be calculated based on a risk of no more than 1-2% of the trading capital. For example, with a $10,000 account, the risk per trade should be $100-$200.
Risk/Reward Ratio
The risk/reward ratio for this trade is approximately 1:2, offering a favorable balance between potential profit and acceptable risk.
Disclaimer
This analysis is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. It is recommended to conduct your own research before making investment decisions.
End of article.
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