BTC/USDT Futures Trading Analysis - 28 October 2025

BTC/USDT Futures Trading Analysis - 28 October 2025

1. Market Overview

As of 28 October 2025, the BTC/USDT futures market is showing signs of consolidation after a recent bearish trend. The current spot price stands at **$114,167.39**, while the futures price is slightly lower at **$114,118.80**, indicating a minor backwardation. The market has experienced a **0.69% decline** over the past 24 hours, with an intraday high of **$116,400.00** and a low of **$113,788.32**. This price action suggests a lack of strong directional momentum, as Bitcoin hovers near key support and resistance levels.

2. Technical Analysis

The technical indicators provide a mixed outlook for BTC/USDT futures, with bearish signals dominating but potential for a reversal if key levels are breached.

Moving Averages

The **50-day Moving Average (MA)** is at **$114,001.57**, while the **50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA)** is slightly lower at **$113,987.86**. The price is currently trading just above these levels, indicating a neutral to slightly bearish bias. A break below these averages could signal further downside.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The **RSI (14)** is at **38.72**, which is in the neutral to oversold territory. This suggests that selling pressure may be waning, and a potential bounce could occur if buyers step in.

MACD

The **MACD** is at **-24.48**, with the histogram showing bearish momentum. However, the MACD line is nearing a potential crossover, which could indicate a shift in momentum if confirmed.

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

Using the recent swing high of **$116,400.00** and the swing low of **$113,788.32**, the key Fibonacci levels are as follows:

Level

Price

23.6%

$114,766.23

38.2%

$114,390.45

50%

$114,094.16

61.8%

$113,797.87

The price is currently testing the **50% retracement level**, which could act as a pivot point for the next move.

Bollinger Bands

The Bollinger Bands show a narrowing range, with the price hovering near the middle band. This indicates low volatility and a potential breakout in the near term.

Average True Range (ATR)

The **ATR (14)** is at **$1,200**, suggesting moderate volatility. Traders should watch for a breakout above or below the current range for confirmation of a new trend.

Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP)

The **VWAP** is at **$114,500**, slightly above the current price. This indicates that the market is trading below the average price for the day, suggesting bearish sentiment.

Elliott Wave Analysis

The current price action appears to be in **Wave 4** of a corrective Elliott Wave pattern. A break below **$113,788.32** could confirm the start of **Wave 5** to the downside, while a move above **$114,766.23** could invalidate this count and signal a bullish reversal.

3. Trading Strategy

Based on the analysis, here are my recommendations for BTC/USDT futures trading:

Position

• • Short** (with caution, as the market is near key support levels).

Entry Point

Enter a short position if the price breaks below **$113,788.32** with confirmation from increasing volume.

Stop-Loss

Place a stop-loss at **$114,766.23** (above the 23.6% Fibonacci level) to limit potential losses.

Take-Profit

Set the first take-profit target at **$112,000** (near the previous swing low) and the second target at **$110,000** if bearish momentum continues.

Position Size

Risk no more than **2%** of your trading capital on this trade.

Risk/Reward Ratio

The risk/reward ratio is approximately **1:2.5**, providing a favorable setup for the trade.

Conclusion

The BTC/USDT futures market is at a critical juncture, with key technical levels and indicators suggesting potential downside if support is broken. However, traders should remain cautious and wait for confirmation before entering a position. Always manage risk carefully and adjust your strategy based on real-time market developments.

⚠️ *Disclaimer: This analysis is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. It is recommended to conduct your own research before making investment decisions.* ⚠️

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