BTC/USDT Futures Trading Analysis - 23 06 2025

Market Overview

As of June 23, 2025, the BTC/USDT futures market is showing signs of consolidation after a recent pullback. The current spot price of Bitcoin stands at $101,112.92, while the futures price is slightly lower at $101,051.00, indicating a minor backwardation. Over the past 24 hours, the market has experienced a decline of 1.40%, with an intraday high of $102,946.47 and a low of $98,200.00. This price action suggests a period of indecision among traders, with the market testing key support and resistance levels.

Technical Analysis

Moving Averages

The 50-day Moving Average (MA) is currently at $102,115.43, while the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is at $101,860.09. Both indicators are trending slightly downward, indicating a bearish bias in the short term. The price is currently trading below these averages, which could act as resistance levels in the near future.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 51.77, which is in the neutral zone. This suggests that the market is neither overbought nor oversold, and there is potential for movement in either direction.

Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD)

The MACD is currently at -375.53, with the MACD line below the signal line. This is a bearish signal, indicating that the downward momentum may continue in the short term.

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

Using the recent swing high of $102,946.47 and the swing low of $98,200.00, the key Fibonacci retracement levels are as follows:

Level	Price
23.6%	$100,200.00
38.2%	$99,500.00
50%	$98,850.00
61.8%	$98,200.00

The price is currently hovering around the 23.6% retracement level, which could act as a support zone.

Bollinger Bands

The Bollinger Bands show that the price is currently near the middle band, which is at $101,500.00. The upper band is at $104,000.00, and the lower band is at $99,000.00. The bands are narrowing, indicating reduced volatility and a potential breakout in the near future.

Average True Range (ATR)

The 14-day Average True Range (ATR) is at $1,200.00, suggesting moderate volatility. This indicates that the market could see significant price swings in the coming days.

Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP)

The VWAP for the day is at $100,800.00. The price is currently above the VWAP, which is a bullish signal in the short term.

Elliott Wave Analysis

Based on Elliott Wave Theory, the market appears to be in the corrective phase of a larger uptrend. The current price action suggests that we are in Wave 4 of a five-wave structure, with a potential Wave 5 to follow.

Trading Strategy

Position

Given the current technical indicators, a short position is recommended for the short term, with a potential long position if key support levels hold.

Entry Point

Enter a short position near the current price of $101,051.00, or wait for a pullback to the 38.2% Fibonacci level at $99,500.00 for a better risk/reward ratio.

Stop-Loss

Set a stop-loss at $102,500.00, just above the 50-day MA and EMA levels.

Take-Profit

Take profit at the 61.8% Fibonacci level of $98,200.00, or adjust based on market conditions.

Position Size

Risk no more than 2% of your trading capital on this trade.

Risk/Reward Ratio

The risk/reward ratio for this trade is approximately 1:2, which is favorable.

⚠️ *Disclaimer: This analysis is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. It is recommended to conduct your own research before making investment decisions.* ⚠️

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