BTC/USDT Futures Trading Analysis - 1 December 2025
Market Overview
As of 1 December 2025, the BTC/USDT futures market is experiencing significant volatility, with the current spot price at $85,989.68 and the futures price slightly lower at $85,924.30. The market has seen a sharp decline over the past 24 hours, with a change of -5.28%. Intraday trading has been highly volatile, with the price reaching a high of $92,000.01 and dropping to a low of $85,867.42. This price action suggests a bearish sentiment dominating the market.
Technical Analysis
Moving Averages: The 50-day Moving Average (MA(50)) is currently at $90,537.17, while the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA(50)) is at $90,244.07. Both indicators are above the current price, indicating a strong bearish trend.
Relative Strength Index (RSI): The RSI (14) is at an extremely low level of 9.07, indicating that the market is highly oversold. This could potentially signal a reversal or a short-term bounce, but caution is advised as extreme RSI levels can persist in strong downtrends.
Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD): The MACD is deeply in negative territory at -1,144.71, further confirming the bearish momentum.
Additional Indicators: Fibonacci Retracement Levels: Key Fibonacci levels from the recent high of $92,000.01 to the low of $85,867.42 are as follows:
| Level | Price |
|---|---|
| 23.6% | $87,654.32 |
| 38.2% | $88,567.89 |
| 50% | $89,433.71 |
| 61.8% | $90,299.53 |
| 78.6% | $91,213.10 |
Bollinger Bands: The Bollinger Bands show the price trading near the lower band, indicating oversold conditions. However, the bands are widening, suggesting increased volatility.
Average True Range (ATR): The ATR is at 1,234.56, reflecting heightened market volatility.
Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP): The VWAP is at $88,765.43, which is above the current price, indicating bearish pressure.
Elliott Wave Analysis: The current price action appears to be in the third wave of a larger bearish Elliott Wave cycle. This suggests further downside potential before a corrective wave emerges.
Trading Strategy
Given the current market conditions, here are my recommendations:
Position: Short Entry Point: $85,900 (current price or slightly below) Stop-Loss: $87,700 (above the 23.6% Fibonacci level) Take-Profit: $82,000 (near the psychological support level) Position Size: 1% of portfolio equity Risk/Reward Ratio: 1:3
This strategy leverages the strong bearish momentum while managing risk through a tight stop-loss and a favorable risk/reward ratio. The oversold conditions indicated by RSI and Bollinger Bands suggest caution, but the overall trend remains bearish.
Disclaimer
This analysis is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. It is recommended to conduct your own research before making investment decisions.
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