BTC/USDT Futures Trading Analysis - 18 December 2025
Market Overview
As of 18 December 2025, the BTC/USDT futures market is showing signs of consolidation following a period of volatility. The current spot price is $86,548.21, while the futures price is slightly lower at $86,482.00, indicating a minor backwardation. Over the past 24 hours, the market has seen a modest decline of 0.24%, with an intraday high of $90,365.85 and a low of $85,314.00. This price action suggests a tug-of-war between buyers and sellers, with the market searching for a clear direction.
Technical Analysis
Moving Averages: The 50-day Moving Average (MA) is currently at $86,867.86, while the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is at $87,003.52. Both indicators are slightly above the current price, indicating potential resistance levels.
Relative Strength Index (RSI): The RSI (14) stands at 42.89, which is in the neutral zone. This suggests that the market is neither overbought nor oversold, leaving room for potential movement in either direction.
Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD): The MACD is at -216.11, indicating bearish momentum. The histogram shows a negative value, suggesting that the bears are currently in control.
Fibonacci Retracement Levels: Using the recent swing high of $90,365.85 and the swing low of $85,314.00, the key Fibonacci levels are as follows:
| Level | Price |
|---|---|
| 23.6% | $86,500.85 |
| 38.2% | $87,200.45 |
| 50% | $87,839.92 |
| 61.8% | $88,479.39 |
| 78.6% | $89,379.00 |
Bollinger Bands: The Bollinger Bands are narrowing, indicating reduced volatility. The upper band is at $89,500.00, the middle band (20-day MA) is at $86,800.00, and the lower band is at $84,100.00.
Average True Range (ATR): The ATR is currently at $1,200.00, indicating moderate volatility. This suggests that while the market is not in a highly volatile phase, significant price movements are still possible.
Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP): The VWAP is at $86,700.00, which is slightly above the current price. This indicates that the average price paid by traders over the day is higher, suggesting potential support at this level.
Elliott Wave Analysis: The market appears to be in a corrective wave (Wave 4) after a strong impulse wave (Wave 3). This suggests that a potential Wave 5 could be on the horizon, which might drive prices higher if the correction completes.
Trading Strategy
Given the current technical setup, here are my recommendations:
Position: Short Entry Point: $86,500.00 Stop-Loss: $87,500.00 Take-Profit: $84,500.00 Position Size: 1% of the trading capital Risk/Reward Ratio: 1:2
Rationale: The bearish MACD, combined with the resistance levels indicated by the MA and EMA, suggests that there is potential for a downward move. The Fibonacci retracement levels also support this view, with the 23.6% level acting as a resistance. The stop-loss is set above the 50-day EMA to minimize risk, while the take-profit target is near the lower Bollinger Band, offering a favorable risk/reward ratio.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This analysis is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. It is recommended to conduct your own research before making investment decisions. ⚠️
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