BTC/USDT Futures Trading Analysis - 18 08 2025
Market Overview
As of August 18, 2025, the BTC/USDT futures market is showing signs of bearish momentum. The current spot price is $115,507.99, while the futures price is slightly lower at $115,445.00, indicating a slight backwardation. Over the past 24 hours, the market has experienced a decline of 2.17%, with the intraday high reaching $118,575.00 and the low dipping to $115,292.67. This price action suggests a continuation of the recent downtrend, with sellers dominating the market.
Technical Analysis
The technical indicators paint a clear picture of the current market sentiment.
Moving Averages
The 50-day Moving Average (MA) is at $117,620.69, and the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is at $117,678.05. Both are above the current price, indicating a bearish trend. The fact that the price is trading below these key moving averages reinforces the bearish outlook.
Relative Strength Index
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 15.05, which is deep into oversold territory. While this could suggest a potential reversal or bounce, the extreme reading also indicates strong selling pressure. Traders should be cautious, as oversold conditions can persist during strong downtrends.
Moving Average Convergence Divergence
The MACD is at -452.05, with the signal line below the MACD line, confirming the bearish momentum. The histogram is also negative, indicating that the downward trend is accelerating.
Fibonacci Retracement
Using the recent swing high of $118,575.00 and the swing low of $115,292.67, the key Fibonacci retracement levels are:
| Level | Price |
| 23.6% | $116,045.00 |
| 38.2% | $116,605.00 |
| 50% | $117,030.00 |
| 61.8% | $117,455.00 |
The price is currently below the 23.6% level, indicating weak retracement potential.
Bollinger Bands
The Bollinger Bands show the price trading near the lower band, which is at $114,800.00, suggesting that the market is oversold. However, the bands are widening, indicating increased volatility and potential for further downside.
Average True Range
The Average True Range (ATR) is at $1,200.00, reflecting heightened volatility. Traders should be cautious of sudden price swings.
Volume Weighted Average Price
The VWAP is at $116,800.00, which is above the current price, signaling bearish momentum.
Elliott Wave Analysis
Based on Elliott Wave Theory, the market appears to be in the third wave of a larger downtrend. This wave is typically the strongest and most extended, suggesting that the current sell-off could continue.
Trading Strategy
Given the bearish technical indicators and market structure, the following trading strategy is recommended:
Position
Short
Entry Point
$115,400.00
Stop-Loss
$116,500.00 (above the 23.6% Fibonacci level)
Take-Profit
$113,000.00 (near the recent support level)
Position Size
1% of the trading capital, assuming a risk tolerance of 1% per trade.
Risk/Reward Ratio
1:2.4 (Risk: $1,100.00, Reward: $2,400.00)
Additional Notes
Monitor the RSI closely for any signs of divergence, which could indicate a potential reversal. Additionally, keep an eye on the Bollinger Bands for a possible bounce off the lower band.
⚠️ *Disclaimer: This analysis is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. It is recommended to conduct your own research before making investment decisions.* ⚠️
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