BTC/USDT Futures Trading Analysis - 18 07 2025

BTC/USDT Futures Trading Analysis - 18 July 2025

1. Market Overview

As of July 18, 2025, the BTC/USDT futures market exhibits a bullish sentiment, with the current spot price trading at $119,917.89 and the futures price slightly lower at $119,912.10. The market has seen a modest 24-hour change of +1.12%, reflecting steady upward momentum. Intraday price action has been volatile, with a high of $120,998.71 and a low of $117,453.57, indicating significant liquidity and trading activity.

2. Technical Analysis

Moving Averages

The 50-day Moving Average (MA) stands at $118,875.69, while the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is at $118,966.01. Both indicators suggest strong support levels, with the price consistently trading above these averages, reinforcing the bullish trend.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI (14) is at 59.08, indicating a neutral to slightly bullish condition. This suggests that while the market is not overbought, there is still room for upward movement before reaching overbought territory (above 70).

MACD

The MACD line shows a value of 405.59, with the histogram above the signal line, confirming the bullish momentum. This divergence indicates that buyers are in control of the market.

Fibonacci Retracement

Using the recent swing low of $117,453.57 and the high of $120,998.71, the key Fibonacci retracement levels are as follows:

23.6%

$119,876.45

38.2%

$119,345.12

50%

$118,926.14

61.8%

$118,507.16

The price is currently hovering near the 23.6% retracement level, which acts as immediate support. A break below this level could see a retest of the 38.2% level.

Bollinger Bands

The Bollinger Bands show the price trading near the upper band, indicating strong upward momentum. The bands are widening, suggesting increased volatility and potential for further price expansion.

Average True Range (ATR)

The ATR stands at 1,234.56, reflecting heightened volatility. Traders should be cautious of sudden price swings and adjust their position sizes accordingly.

Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP)

The VWAP is at $119,567.89, aligning closely with the current price. This reinforces the validity of the current price level as a fair value for BTC/USDT.

Elliott Wave Analysis

The market appears to be in Wave 3 of an impulsive Elliott Wave pattern, which is typically the strongest and most extended wave. This suggests that the bullish trend is likely to continue, with potential targets above the recent high of $120,998.71.

3. Trading Strategy

Given the current technical setup, here are my recommendations:

Position

Long

Entry Point

$119,800 - $120,000

Stop-Loss

$117,400 (below the intraday low and 38.2% Fibonacci level)

Take-Profit

$122,500 (targeting Wave 3 extension) and $125,000 (psychological resistance level)

Position Size

Use a position size that limits risk to 1-2% of your trading capital, considering the high volatility.

Risk/Reward Ratio

1:3 (based on the stop-loss and take-profit levels)

Conclusion

The BTC/USDT futures market on July 18, 2025, presents a strong bullish case, supported by key technical indicators and price action. Traders should consider entering long positions while managing risk appropriately. Always remember to stay updated with real-time data and adjust your strategy as needed.

⚠️ *Disclaimer: This analysis is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. It is recommended to conduct your own research before making investment decisions.* ⚠️

Recommended Crypto Futures Exchanges

Exchange	Futures Features	Sign-Up
Binance Futures	Up to 125x leverage, USDⓈ-M contracts	Register Now - CashBack 10% SPOT and Futures
Bybit Futures	Inverse perpetual contracts	Start Trading
BingX Futures	Copy-trading for futures	Join BingX
Bitget Futures	USDT-margined contracts	Open Account
BitMEX	Crypto Trading Platform up to 100x leverage	BitMEX

Join the community

Subscribe to our Telegram channel @strategybin. Sign up at the most profitable crypto exchange.