BTC/USDT Futures Trading Analysis - 14 November 2025
BTC/USDT Futures Trading Analysis - 14 November 2025
1. Market Overview
As of 14 November 2025, the BTC/USDT futures market is experiencing a sharp correction. The current spot price stands at $97,523.52, while the futures price is slightly lower at $97,493.20, indicating mild bearish sentiment in the derivatives market. The 24-hour change is -5.86%, reflecting strong selling pressure. The intraday high was $104,085.01, while the low touched $96,712.12, showing significant volatility.
Key Observations:
- The futures price is trading below the spot price, suggesting short-term bearish bias.
- The market has rejected the $104K resistance level and is now testing support near $96.7K.
2. Technical Analysis
Moving Averages
| Indicator | Value |
|---|---|
| MA(50) | $101,799.83 (Resistance) |
| EMA(50) | $101,321.61 (Resistance) |
The price is trading well below both the MA(50) and EMA(50), confirming a bearish trend.
Oscillators
| Indicator | Value |
|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 27.85 (Oversold) |
| MACD | -1088.19 (Bearish Momentum) |
The RSI is deep in oversold territory, which may indicate a potential short-term bounce. However, the MACD remains strongly negative, reinforcing the downtrend.
Additional Indicators
- **Fibonacci Retracement** (from recent swing high $104,085.01 to low $96,712.12):
- 23.6%: $98,200.45 - 38.2%: $99,500.12 - 50%: $100,398.56 - 61.8%: $101,297.00
- **Bollinger Bands**: Price is near the lower band, suggesting possible oversold conditions.
- **ATR (14)**: High volatility at $3,200, indicating large price swings.
- **VWAP**: Trading below VWAP, confirming bearish intraday bias.
- **Elliott Wave Analysis**: The current structure suggests we are in Wave 3 of a larger corrective pattern, with potential downside toward $92K before a Wave 4 rebound.
3. Trading Strategy
Given the strong bearish momentum and oversold conditions, traders should consider the following approach:
Short-Term Scalp Trade (Aggressive)
- **Position**: Short (if price retests $98,200 Fibonacci 23.6%)
- **Entry**: $98,000 - $98,500
- **Stop-Loss**: $99,600 (above 38.2% Fib)
- **Take-Profit**: $96,700 (re-test of lows)
- **Position Size**: 1-2% of capital
- **Risk/Reward Ratio**: 1:2
Swing Trade (Conservative)
- **Position**: Wait for RSI recovery above 30 before considering longs
- **Entry**: $95,000 - $96,000 (if support holds)
- **Stop-Loss**: $93,800
- **Take-Profit**: $101,300 (61.8% Fib)
- **Position Size**: 3-5% of capital
- **Risk/Reward Ratio**: 1:3
Final Thoughts
The market remains bearish in the short term, but oversold conditions could lead to a relief bounce. Traders should monitor key levels ($96.7K support and $98.2K resistance) for potential reversals.
⚠️ *Disclaimer: This analysis is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. It is recommended to conduct your own research before making investment decisions.* ️
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