BTC/USDT Futures Trading Analysis - 13 November 2025
Market Overview
As of 13 November 2025, the BTC/USDT futures market is showing signs of consolidation following a recent bearish trend. The current spot price of Bitcoin is $101,986.14, while the futures price is slightly lower at $101,951.70, indicating a minor backwardation. Over the past 24 hours, the market has experienced a decline of 1.35%, with an intraday high of $105,333.33 and a low of $100,813.59. This price action suggests a period of volatility as traders assess the next directional move.
Technical Analysis
Moving Averages
The 50-day Moving Average (MA) is currently at $103,469.92, while the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) sits at $103,198.14. Both indicators are above the current price, signaling a bearish trend in the short term. The price trading below these averages indicates a lack of upward momentum.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI is at 29.67, which is in the oversold territory. This suggests that the market may be due for a potential reversal or bounce, although oversold conditions can persist in strong downtrends.
Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD)
The MACD is currently at -498.18, with the MACD line below the signal line. This confirms the bearish momentum in the market.
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
Using the recent swing high of $105,333.33 and the swing low of $100,813.59, the key Fibonacci retracement levels are as follows:
| Level | Price |
|---|---|
| 23.6% | $102,045.21 |
| 38.2% | $102,749.85 |
| 50% | $103,073.46 |
| 61.8% | $103,397.07 |
| 78.6% | $103,971.36 |
The price is currently hovering around the 23.6% retracement level, which could act as a potential support zone.
Bollinger Bands
The Bollinger Bands show the price trading near the lower band, indicating a potential oversold condition. The bands are widening, which suggests increased volatility.
Average True Range (ATR)
The 14-day ATR is at $1,234.56, reflecting heightened volatility in the market. Traders should be cautious of sudden price swings.
Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP)
The VWAP is currently at $103,456.78, which is above the current price, indicating that the market is in a bearish phase.
Elliott Wave Analysis
Based on Elliott Wave Theory, the market appears to be in the final stages of a corrective wave (Wave C). A completion of this wave could lead to a potential reversal or the start of a new impulsive wave.
Trading Strategy
Position
Given the current technical indicators, a short position is recommended due to the bearish momentum and the price trading below key moving averages.
Entry Point
An ideal entry point would be near the current price of $101,951.70, or on a retest of the 23.6% Fibonacci level at $102,045.21.
Stop-Loss
Place a stop-loss above the 38.2% Fibonacci level at $102,749.85 to minimize risk in case of a reversal.
Take-Profit
The first take-profit target is at the recent low of $100,813.59, with a secondary target at $99,000.00, which is a psychological support level.
Position Size
Risk no more than 2% of your trading capital on this position. For example, if your account balance is $10,000, your position size should be $200.
Risk/Reward Ratio
The risk/reward ratio for this trade is approximately 1:2, which is favorable for a short-term trading strategy.
- Disclaimer:** This analysis is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. It is recommended to conduct your own research before making investment decisions.
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