BTC/USDT Futures Trading Analysis - 12 07 2025

BTC/USDT Futures Trading Analysis - 12 July 2025

1. Market Overview

As of July 12, 2025, the BTC/USDT futures market is exhibiting minor bearish pressure, with the current futures price trading at **$117,760.70**, slightly below the spot price of **$117,800.00**. The 24-hour change stands at **-0.05%**, indicating a relatively stable but cautious market sentiment. Intraday price action saw a high of **$118,869.98** and a low of **$116,604.87**, suggesting moderate volatility within a defined range.

Key observations: - The futures price is trading at a slight discount to the spot price, which may indicate short-term bearish sentiment. - The narrow 24-hour range suggests consolidation before a potential breakout.

2. Technical Analysis

Moving Averages

class="wikitable"
Indicator	Value
MA(50)	$115,339.98
EMA(50)	$115,611.74

The price remains above both the MA(50) and EMA(50), signaling a medium-term bullish trend. However, the lack of strong upward momentum suggests potential sideways movement.

Oscillators

class="wikitable"
Indicator	Value
RSI (14)	49.13
MACD	562.78

- The RSI (14) is neutral at **49.13**, indicating neither overbought nor oversold conditions. - The MACD histogram shows a positive value (**562.78**), but the fading momentum suggests weakening bullish pressure.

Additional Indicators

Fibonacci Retracement Levels (from recent swing high to low):

class="wikitable"
Level	Price
23.6%	$117,240.50
38.2%	$116,920.30
50%	$116,650.00
61.8%	$116,379.70

The price is currently hovering near the **23.6% retracement level**, which may act as support. A break below could target the **38.2% level** at **$116,920.30**.

Bollinger Bands (20-period): - Upper Band: **$119,400.00** - Lower Band: **$114,800.00** - Price is trading near the middle band, indicating a lack of strong directional bias.

Average True Range (ATR): **$2,450.00** The ATR suggests moderate volatility, with potential for a **$2,450** move in either direction.

Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP): **$117,200.00** The price is above the VWAP, indicating bullish intraday sentiment, but a drop below could shift momentum.

Elliott Wave Analysis The current structure suggests we may be in **Wave 4** of an impulsive uptrend, with a potential retracement before a final **Wave 5** push. Key support lies at **$116,600** (Wave 4 termination zone).

3. Trading Strategy

Recommendation

Given the mixed signals, a cautious approach is advised:

- **Position**: Short-term **short** (if price breaks below **$117,240**) or **long** (if price reclaims **$118,000** with volume). - **Entry Point**:

 - Short: **$117,200** (break below 23.6% Fib)  
 - Long: **$118,100** (confirmation above resistance)  

- **Stop-Loss**:

 - Short: **$117,800** (above recent swing high)  
 - Long: **$116,500** (below Wave 4 support)  

- **Take-Profit**:

 - Short: **$116,000** (next support level)  
 - Long: **$120,000** (psychological resistance)  

- **Position Size**: 1-2% of capital per trade. - **Risk/Reward Ratio**: Minimum **1:2**.

Final Thoughts

The BTC/USDT futures market is in a consolidation phase, with key levels to watch at **$117,240** (support) and **$118,100** (resistance). Traders should wait for confirmation before entering positions and manage risk carefully.

⚠️ Disclaimer: This analysis is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. It is recommended to conduct your own research before making investment decisions. ⚠️

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