BTC/USDT Futures Trading Analysis - 11 February 2026
BTC/USDT Futures Trading Analysis - 11 February 2026
Market Overview
As of 11 February 2026, the BTC/USDT futures market is showing signs of consolidation after a recent pullback. The current spot price stands at **$68,242.69**, while the futures price is slightly lower at **$68,197.00**, indicating mild bearish sentiment in the derivatives market. The 24-hour change is **-1.74%**, reflecting a minor correction from the intraday high of **$69,993.65**. The low of **$67,800.00** suggests strong support near the $68,000 level.
Technical Analysis
Moving Averages
The 50-period Simple Moving Average (MA) is at **$69,515.12**, while the Exponential Moving Average (EMA-50) is at **$69,328.74**. The price is currently trading below both, indicating short-term bearish momentum.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at **47.67**, which is in neutral territory. This suggests neither overbought nor oversold conditions, leaving room for further directional movement.
MACD
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) shows a value of **-286.39**, with the signal line below the MACD line, reinforcing the bearish bias in the short term.
Additional Indicators
- **Fibonacci Retracement Levels** (from recent swing high $72,500 to low $67,800):
| Level | Price |
|---|---|
| 23.6% | $68,985.20 |
| 38.2% | $69,497.40 |
| 50% | $70,150.00 |
| 61.8% | $70,802.60 |
- **Bollinger Bands**: The price is hovering near the lower band, suggesting potential oversold conditions if volatility expands.
- **Average True Range (ATR)**: Currently at **$1,245**, indicating moderate volatility.
- **Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP)**: Sitting at **$69,120**, acting as a resistance level.
- **Elliott Wave Analysis**: The market appears to be in a corrective Wave 4, with a potential Wave 5 decline if support at **$67,800** fails.
Trading Strategy
Recommendation
Given the current technical setup, a **short position** is preferred with the following parameters:
- **Entry Point**: $68,100 (near current price)
- **Stop-Loss**: $69,500 (above the EMA-50 and Fibonacci 38.2% level)
- **Take-Profit Targets**:
* First Target: $67,000 (strong support zone) * Second Target: $66,000 (next psychological level)
- **Position Size**: 1-2% of capital per trade
- **Risk/Reward Ratio**: 1:2.5
Alternative Scenario
If the price breaks above **$69,500**, consider a long position targeting **$71,000** (Fibonacci 61.8% level) with a stop-loss at **$68,000**.
Conclusion
The BTC/USDT futures market is currently in a corrective phase, with bearish momentum dominating short-term price action. Traders should monitor the $67,800 support level closely, as a breakdown could lead to further downside. Conversely, a break above $69,500 may signal a trend reversal.
⚠️ *Disclaimer: This analysis is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. It is recommended to conduct your own research before making investment decisions.* ⚠️
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