BTC/USDT Futures Trading Analysis - 11 07 2025
BTC/USDT Futures Trading Analysis — July 11, 2025
1. Market Overview
As of July 11, 2025, the BTC/USDT futures market is showing strong bullish momentum, with the current futures price trading at **$115,541.80**, slightly below the spot price of **$115,584.00**. The market has gained **+3.95%** in the last 24 hours, with an intraday high of **$116,868.00** and a low of **$110,500.00**, indicating significant volatility.
Key observations: - The futures price is in slight backwardation (trading below spot), which may suggest short-term caution among traders. - The price has rebounded sharply from the intraday low, showing strong buying interest near the **$110,500** support level.
2. Technical Analysis
Trend Indicators
- **MA(50):** **$110,857.62** – The price remains well above the 50-day moving average, confirming a strong uptrend. - **EMA(50):** **$111,478.76** – The exponential moving average is also trending upward, reinforcing bullish momentum.
Momentum Indicators
- **RSI (14):** **79.19** – The RSI is in overbought territory, signaling potential exhaustion or a short-term pullback. However, in strong trends, RSI can remain elevated for extended periods. - **MACD:** **1403.77** – The MACD histogram is positive and widening, indicating increasing bullish momentum.
Volatility & Volume Indicators
- **Bollinger Bands:** The price is hugging the upper band, suggesting strong upward momentum. A retest of the middle band (**$112,500**) could provide a buying opportunity. - **ATR (14):** **$3,200** – High average true range confirms elevated volatility, requiring wider stop-loss placements. - **VWAP:** **$113,200** – The price is above the volume-weighted average price, indicating bullish intraday sentiment.
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
Using the recent swing low (**$110,500**) and high (**$116,868**), key levels are:
| Level | Price |
|---|---|
| 23.6% | $114,950 |
| 38.2% | $113,900 |
| 50% | $113,200 |
| 61.8% | $112,500 |
Elliott Wave Analysis
The current structure suggests we are in **Wave 3** of an impulsive uptrend, with: - **Wave 1:** $100,000 → $108,000 - **Wave 2:** $108,000 → $105,000 (shallow retracement) - **Wave 3:** $105,000 → $116,868 (extended wave) A minor pullback (Wave 4) toward **$113,000–$112,500** may precede another leg up (Wave 5).
3. Trading Strategy
Recommendation: Cautious Long
Given the overbought RSI and potential for a short-term pullback, traders should wait for a dip to enter.
- **Entry Zone:** **$113,000–$112,500** (Fibonacci 38.2–50% retracement & VWAP support) - **Stop-Loss:** **$110,400** (below recent swing low) - **Take-Profit Targets:**
- **TP1:** $115,500 (immediate resistance) - **TP2:** $117,000 (new high) - **TP3:** $120,000 (psychological level)
- **Position Size:** 1–2% of capital per trade - **Risk/Reward Ratio:** 1:3 (approx. $2,600 risk vs. $7,800 reward)
Alternative Scenario: Short-Term Short
If the RSI divergence leads to a rejection at **$116,800**, aggressive traders could consider a short with: - **Entry:** $116,500 - **Stop-Loss:** $117,200 - **Take-Profit:** $113,000
Final Thoughts
The overall trend remains bullish, but the overextended RSI suggests caution. Traders should monitor key support levels (**$113,000–$112,500**) for potential long entries. A break below **$110,400** would invalidate the bullish structure.
⚠️ *Disclaimer: This analysis is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. It is recommended to conduct your own research before making investment decisions.* ⚠️
Related Concepts
- Moving Average - Relative Strength Index - Fibonacci Retracement - Bollinger Bands - Elliott Wave Theory
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