BTC/USDT Futures Trading Analysis - 05 08 2025
Market Overview
As of August 05, 2025, the BTC/USDT futures market is displaying a relatively stable yet cautious sentiment. The current spot price stands at $114,291.30, while the futures price is slightly lower at $114,242.60, indicating a minor contango. Over the past 24 hours, the market has seen a marginal decline of 0.08%, with an intraday high of $115,720.00 and a low of $115,121.00. This suggests that the market is consolidating after recent movements, with traders carefully assessing the next directional bias.
Technical Analysis
Moving Averages
The 50-day Moving Average (MA) is currently at $114,378.92, while the Exponential Moving Average (EMA) for the same period is slightly higher at $114,531.94. The price is hovering just below both the MA and EMA, indicating a potential bearish bias in the short term.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 39.15, which is approaching the oversold territory. This suggests that selling pressure may be nearing exhaustion, and a potential reversal or bounce could be on the horizon.
Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD)
The MACD is currently at 95.53, with the MACD line slightly below the signal line. This indicates a bearish momentum in the near term, though the histogram is showing signs of flattening, which could signal a potential slowdown in downward momentum.
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
Based on the recent swing high and low, the key Fibonacci retracement levels are as follows:
| Level | Price | 23.6% | $114,890.00 | 38.2% | $114,620.00 | 50.0% | $114,420.00 | 61.8% | $114,220.00 |
|---|
The price is currently testing the 61.8% retracement level, which could act as a support zone.
Bollinger Bands
The Bollinger Bands show the price trading near the lower band, indicating that the market is in a lower volatility phase and potentially oversold. A bounce toward the middle band ($114,800.00) could be expected if buying pressure resumes.
Average True Range (ATR)
The 14-day Average True Range (ATR) is at $1,200.00, suggesting moderate volatility. This indicates that while the market is not in a highly volatile phase, significant price movements could still occur.
Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP)
The VWAP is currently at $114,500.00, which is slightly above the current price. This suggests that the market is trading at a discount relative to the average price, potentially presenting a buying opportunity for long-term traders.
Elliott Wave Analysis
From an Elliott Wave Theory perspective, the market appears to be in Wave 4 of a larger corrective pattern. This wave is typically characterized by consolidation or a shallow retracement, which aligns with the current price action. A breakout above $115,720.00 could signal the start of Wave 5, while a break below $114,121.00 could extend the correction.
Trading Strategy
Position Recommendation
Given the current technical setup, a cautious long position is recommended, with a focus on short-term upside potential.
Entry Point
An entry point around the current price of $114,242.60 or slightly lower near the 61.8% Fibonacci level ($114,220.00) is ideal.
Stop-Loss
A stop-loss should be placed just below the recent intraday low at $114,000.00 to limit downside risk.
Take-Profit
The first take-profit target is set at the 38.2% Fibonacci level ($114,620.00), with a secondary target at the 23.6% level ($114,890.00).
Position Size
A position size of 1-2% of the total portfolio is recommended to manage risk effectively.
Risk/Reward Ratio
The risk/reward ratio for this trade is approximately 1:2, providing a favorable balance between potential profit and risk.
⚠️ *Disclaimer: This analysis is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. It is recommended to conduct your own research before making investment decisions.* ⚠️
Recommended Crypto Futures Exchanges
| Exchange | Futures Features | Sign-Up |
|---|---|---|
| Binance Futures | Up to 125x leverage, USDⓈ-M contracts | Register Now - CashBack 10% SPOT and Futures |
| Bybit Futures | Inverse perpetual contracts | Start Trading |
| BingX Futures | Copy-trading for futures | Join BingX |
| Bitget Futures | USDT-margined contracts | Open Account |
| BitMEX | Crypto Trading Platform up to 100x leverage | BitMEX |
Join the community
Subscribe to our Telegram channel @strategybin. Sign up at the most profitable crypto exchange.