BTC/USDT Futures Trading Analysis - 05 06 2025
BTC/USDT Futures Trading Analysis - 05 June 2025
1. Market Overview
As of June 05, 2025, the BTC/USDT futures market is showing moderate bearish pressure, with the current futures price trading at **$104,852.90**, slightly below the spot price of **$104,894.82**. The 24-hour change stands at **-0.49%**, indicating a minor pullback from the intraday high of **$106,000.00**. The low of **$104,179.00** suggests strong support near the $104,000 level.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Spot Price | $104,894.82 |
| Futures Price | $104,852.90 |
| 24h Change | -0.49% |
| Intraday High | $106,000.00 |
| Intraday Low | $104,179.00 |
2. Technical Analysis
Moving Averages
The **50-day Moving Average (MA)** is at **$105,358.94**, while the **50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA)** sits at **$105,169.45**. The price is currently trading below both, signaling short-term bearish momentum.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The **RSI (14)** is at **52.33**, indicating a neutral stance with no clear overbought or oversold conditions.
MACD
The **MACD** shows a value of **-149.12**, with the histogram trending downward, reinforcing bearish momentum in the near term.
Additional Indicators
- **Fibonacci Retracement**: From the recent swing high of $106,000 to the low of $104,179, the 0.618 retracement level is at **$105,290**, acting as resistance.
- **Bollinger Bands**: Price is hovering near the middle band, suggesting consolidation. A break below could target the lower band at **$103,500**.
- **Average True Range (ATR)**: The ATR is **$1,200**, indicating moderate volatility.
- **VWAP**: The Volume-Weighted Average Price is **$104,950**, aligning closely with the current price, suggesting fair value.
- **Elliott Wave Analysis**: The market appears to be in a corrective Wave 4, with potential for a final Wave 5 push upward if support holds.
3. Trading Strategy
Given the current technical setup, here’s a recommended strategy:
- **Position**: Short (with caution)
- **Entry Point**: $104,800 - $105,000
- **Stop-Loss**: $105,500 (above the 50-day EMA)
- **Take-Profit**: $103,500 (near lower Bollinger Band)
- **Position Size**: 1-2% of capital per trade
- **Risk/Reward Ratio**: 1:2
If the price breaks above **$105,500**, consider a long position targeting **$106,500**.
4. Fundamental Analysis
Recent market developments remain subdued, with no major news impacting Bitcoin’s price action. Institutional interest continues to grow, but the lack of catalysts has kept BTC in a consolidation phase. Analysts predict a potential breakout later in Q3 2025, depending on macroeconomic conditions.
⚠️ *Disclaimer: This analysis is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. It is recommended to conduct your own research before making investment decisions.* ⚠️
End of analysis.
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