BTC/USDT Futures Trading Analysis - 04 06 2025
BTC/USDT Futures Trading Analysis - 04 June 2025
1. Market Overview
As of June 04, 2025, the BTC/USDT futures market is showing mild bearish pressure, with the current futures price trading at $105,442.50, slightly below the spot price of $105,486.74. The 24-hour change stands at -0.93%, indicating a minor pullback from recent highs. The intraday range has been relatively tight, with a high of $106,794.67 and a low of $104,872.50, suggesting consolidation before the next directional move.
Key Observations:
- Futures are trading at a slight discount to spot (negative funding rate possible).
- Low volatility compared to previous sessions.
2. Technical Analysis
Moving Averages & Momentum Indicators
| class="wikitable" | |
| Indicator | Value |
|---|---|
| MA(50) | $105,236.40 |
| EMA(50) | $105,343.24 |
| RSI (14) | 52.41 (Neutral) |
| MACD | 115.41 (Bullish Histogram) |
- The price is hovering around the MA(50) and EMA(50), indicating a neutral bias.
- The RSI at 52.41 suggests neither overbought nor oversold conditions.
- The MACD histogram remains positive but is flattening, signaling weakening bullish momentum.
Additional Indicators
- Fibonacci Retracement (from recent swing high $108,500 to low $102,100):
* Key levels to watch: * 38.2% retracement at $105,432 (current price near this level). * 50% retracement at $105,300 (support).
- Bollinger Bands: Price is near the middle band, suggesting range-bound trading.
- ATR (14): 1,245 – Lower than average, indicating reduced volatility.
- VWAP: $105,678 – Slight resistance above current price.
- Elliott Wave Analysis:
* Possible completion of Wave 4 correction. * If Wave 5 begins, expect a push toward $108,000–$110,000.
3. Trading Strategy
Recommendation
- Position: Long (conditional on confirmation).
- Entry Point: $105,200–$105,300 (near EMA(50) and Fib 50% level).
- Stop-Loss: $104,750 (below intraday low).
- Take-Profit Targets:
* TP1: $106,500 (near recent high). * TP2: $108,000 (Wave 5 target).
- Position Size: 1–2% of capital per trade.
- Risk/Reward Ratio: 1:3 (favorable setup).
Alternative Scenario
If price breaks below $104,750, consider a short with:
- Entry: $104,700
- Stop-Loss: $105,200
- Take-Profit: $103,500
4. Fundamental Analysis
While no major news is driving the market today, institutional interest remains strong. Key factors to monitor:
- ETF inflows/outflows.
- Regulatory developments (SEC rulings, global crypto policies).
- Macroeconomic trends (Fed rate decisions, inflation data).
Final Thoughts
The BTC/USDT futures market is in a consolidation phase, with a slight bearish tilt. However, the technical structure suggests a potential long opportunity if support holds. Traders should wait for confirmation before entering positions.
⚠️ *Disclaimer: This analysis is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. It is recommended to conduct your own research before making investment decisions.* ⚠️
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