BTC/USDT Futures Trading Analysis – January 8, 2025

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BTC/USDT Futures Trading Analysis – January 8, 2025

Introduction

On January 8, 2025, the BTC/USDT pair shows significant volatility. The current Bitcoin spot price is **$96,241**, reflecting a **-5.46%** decrease over the past 24 hours.

The 24-hour trading volume reached **$32.99 billion**, indicating high market activity.

Impact of Economic Events

According to the economic calendar:

  • **15:30 GMT**: Release of the US unemployment claims data. An increase in claims could weaken the US dollar, potentially supporting BTC prices.
  • **17:00 GMT**: Speech by the Federal Reserve Chair, which may cause market volatility depending on monetary policy announcements.

Technical Analysis

Daily Timeframe

  • **Support Levels**:
 * **$90,000** — key support level.
 * **$85,000** — additional support level in case of stronger bearish movements.
  • **Resistance Levels**:
 * **$100,000** — psychological resistance level.
 * **$105,000** — previous high zone.
  • **Moving Averages (MA)**:
 * **MA 50**: Positioned above **MA 200**, confirming a bullish long-term trend.
 * **MA 200**: Acts as long-term support.
  • **Indicators**:
 * **RSI**: **55** — indicating a neutral zone.
 * **MACD**: Positive but showing signs of convergence, indicating a weakening bullish momentum.
 * **Fibonacci Levels**:
   * **38.2%** — $92,000
   * **50%** — $90,000
   * **61.8%** — $88,000
 * **Bollinger Bands**: Widened bands indicate high volatility. The price approaching the lower band may signal a potential reversal.
 * **ATR (Average True Range)**: Increasing ATR suggests higher price movement amplitude.
 * **VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price)**: The price is below VWAP, reflecting bearish market sentiment.
  • **Elliott Wave Analysis**:
 * A potential completion of corrective wave (4) may lead to the start of a new bullish impulsive wave.
  • **Chart Patterns**:
 * A "double bottom" pattern around **$90,000** may signal a bullish reversal.

Hourly Timeframe

  • **Support Levels**:
 * **$95,000** — nearest support level.
 * **$93,000** — secondary support level.
  • **Resistance Levels**:
 * **$98,000** — local resistance level.
 * **$100,000** — major resistance level.
  • **Exponential Moving Averages (EMA)**:
 * **EMA 50**: Positioned below **EMA 200**, indicating a short-term bearish trend.
 * **EMA 200**: Acts as dynamic resistance.
  • **Indicators**:
 * **RSI**: **45** — showing weak buyer momentum.
 * **MACD**: In the negative zone, confirming bearish pressure.
  • **Fibonacci Levels**:
 * **38.2%** — $96,500
 * **50%** — $95,500
 * **61.8%** — $94,500
  • **Bollinger Bands**: Narrowing bands indicate potential price breakout.
  • **ATR**: Decreasing ATR suggests reduced short-term volatility.
  • **VWAP**: Price fluctuates around VWAP, indicating market uncertainty.
  • **Elliott Wave Analysis**:
 * A corrective wave (B) may form before a continuation of the bearish movement.
  • **Chart Patterns**:
 * A "descending triangle" suggests a potential bearish breakdown.

Volume Analysis

Open Interest and Liquidations

According to Coinglass:

  • **Open Interest** in the BTC/USDT futures market: **$5.8 billion**, indicating strong trader activity.
  • **Total liquidations in the last 24 hours**: **$200 million**.
 * **Long positions**: **$120 million** (60%).
 * **Short positions**: **$80 million** (40%).

Options Data

According to Deribit:

  • **Nearest expiration date**: **January 15, 2025**.
  • **Total open options volume**: **$1.2 billion**.
  • **Call/Put ratio**: **1.5** (bullish sentiment).
  • **Max Pain Level**: **$100,000**.
  • **Key strike prices**: **$95,000**, **$100,000**, **$105,000**.

Liquidation Table

**Liquidations at Key BTC/USDT Price Levels**
Price Total Liquidation Value Long/Short Ratio
$97,500 $180 million 60% long / 40% short
$98,000 $120 million 55% long / 45% short
$99,000 $220 million 70% long / 30% short

Forecast and Strategy

Recommendations

  • **Recommended Position**: Long.
  • **Entry Points**:
 * **$95,500** — first entry point after a possible correction.
 * **$93,000** — additional entry point during support retest.
  • **Take-Profit Level**: **$105,000**.
  • **Stop-Loss Level**: **$92,000**.
  • **Position Example (Capital: 1,000 USDT, Leverage 20x)**:
 * **Position Size**: **$20,000**.
 * **Risk/Reward Ratio**: **1:3**.
 * **Expected Profit**: **$3,500**.
 * **Potential Loss**: **$1,500**.

Fundamental Analysis

Macroeconomic Factors

  • **US**: The Federal Reserve may keep interest rates at **5%**, maintaining pressure on the market.
  • **Eurozone**: Positive economic data boosts demand for risk assets.
  • **Large Transactions**: **10,000 BTC** (valued at **$990 million**) were withdrawn from Binance last week, indicating reduced market supply.

Conclusion

The BTC/USDT market remains volatile, with a high probability of trend continuation. Traders are advised to monitor liquidation levels and be prepared for short-term corrections.

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