BTC/USDT Futures Trading Analysis – January 7, 2025

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BTC/USDT Futures Trading Analysis – January 7, 2025

Introduction

As of January 7, 2025, the BTC/USDT pair shows moderate growth. The spot price of Bitcoin is **$101,711.00**, reflecting an increase of **+2.27%** over the last 24 hours.

The 24-hour trading volume reached **$50.22 billion**, indicating strong market activity.

Economic Events Impact

According to the economic calendar, the following events could affect BTC/USDT dynamics:

  • **10:00 GMT**: Eurozone unemployment rate. A decline in unemployment could strengthen the euro and influence the value of the US dollar.
  • **13:30 GMT**: US trade balance data. An increase in the trade deficit could weaken the dollar and support the rise of Bitcoin’s price.
  • **15:00 GMT**: US ISM services index report. Higher-than-expected data may strengthen the US dollar and apply pressure on BTC/USDT.

Technical Analysis

Daily Timeframe

  • **Support Levels**:
 * **$98,000** — local support.
 * **$95,000** — psychological support.
  • **Resistance Levels**:
 * **$102,500** — key resistance.
 * **$105,000** — major resistance zone.
  • **Moving Averages (MA)**:
 * **MA 50**: Above **MA 200**, confirming a bullish trend.
 * **MA 200**: Indicates long-term support.
  • **Indicators**:
 * **RSI**: 65, near the overbought zone, indicating a possible correction.
 * **MACD**: The lines continue to diverge in the positive zone, confirming bullish momentum.
 * **Fibonacci Levels**:
   * **38.2%** — $99,000
   * **50%** — $97,500
   * **61.8%** — $95,000
 * **Bollinger Bands**: The bands are wide, indicating high volatility. The price is near the upper band, signaling a potential correction.
 * **ATR (Average True Range)**: Increased ATR confirms growing volatility.
 * **VWAP (Volume-Weighted Average Price)**: The price remains above VWAP, reflecting positive sentiment.
  • **Elliott Wave Analysis**:
 * A third bullish wave seems to be forming, indicating a potential continuation of the trend.
  • **Patterns**:
 * A "bull flag" is forming, signaling a possible continuation after a breakout.

Hourly Timeframe

  • **Support Levels**:
 * **$100,000** — short-term support.
 * **$98,000** — secondary support zone.
  • **Resistance Levels**:
 * **$101,500** — local resistance.
 * **$102,500** — critical resistance.
  • **Exponential Moving Averages (EMA)**:
 * **EMA 50**: Below **EMA 200**, indicating a potential short-term correction.
 * **EMA 200**: Acts as a dynamic resistance level.
  • **Indicators**:
 * **RSI**: 55, neutral zone.
 * **MACD**: The lines have crossed downward, signaling a potential short-term pullback.
  • **Fibonacci Levels**:
 * **38.2%** — $98,700
 * **50%** — $98,000
 * **61.8%** — $97,300
  • **Bollinger Bands**: The bands are narrowing, signaling a possible impulsive move.
  • **ATR**: A decline in ATR indicates lower short-term volatility.
  • **VWAP**: The price fluctuates around the VWAP, indicating short-term market uncertainty.
  • **Elliott Wave Analysis**:
 * A corrective wave (wave 4) may be forming, potentially followed by a new bullish wave.
  • **Patterns**:
 * A rising triangle pattern suggests a potential upward breakout.

Volume Analysis

Liquidations and Open Interest

According to Coinglass data:

  • **Open Interest (OI)** on the BTC/USDT futures market: **$5.8 billion**.
  • **Total liquidations over the last 24 hours**: **$200 million**.
 * **Long Liquidations**: **$120 million** (60%).
 * **Short Liquidations**: **$80 million** (40%).

Options Data

According to Deribit data:

  • **Next Expiration Date**: **January 15, 2025**.
  • **Total Open Options Volume**: **$1.2 billion**.
  • **Call/Put Ratio**: **1.5** (bullish sentiment).
  • **Max Pain Level**: **$100,000**.
  • **Key Strike Prices**: **$95,000**, **$100,000**, **$105,000**.

Liquidation Table

**Liquidations at Key BTC/USDT Price Levels**
Price Total Liquidation Amount Long/Short Ratio
97,500 USD 180 million USD 60% long / 40% short
98,000 USD 120 million USD 55% long / 45% short
99,000 USD 220 million USD 70% long / 30% short

Forecast and Strategy

Recommendations

Based on the current analysis:

  • **Preferred Position**: Long.
  • **Entry Points**:
 * **$101,500** — initial entry after possible correction.
 * **$99,000** — secondary entry after support test.
  • **Take-Profit Level**: **$105,000**.
  • **Stop-Loss Level**: **$98,000**.
  • **Example Position (Capital: 1,000 USDT, Leverage: 20x)**:
 * **Position Size**: **$20,000**.
 * **Risk/Reward Ratio**: **1:3**.
 * **Expected Profit**: **$3,500**.
 * **Potential Loss**: **$1,500**.

Fundamental Analysis

Macroeconomic Factors

News as of January 7, 2025:

  • **US**: The latest FED meeting minutes suggest that the interest rate may remain at 5%.
  • **Eurozone**: Positive economic data increases demand for risk-on assets, supporting BTC/USDT.
  • **Large Transactions**: In the last week, **10,000 BTC** worth **$990 million** were withdrawn from Binance, indicating reduced selling pressure.

Conclusion

The current BTC/USDT market situation suggests a high probability of an uptrend continuation. Traders are advised to monitor liquidation levels and prepare for short-term corrections.

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