BTC/USDT Futures Trading Analysis – January 12, 2025
BTC/USDT Futures Trading Analysis – January 12, 2025
Market Overview
- **Spot Price:** 94,516 USD (+0.19% over the last 24 hours) 📈 - **Futures Price:** 94,516 USD (+0.19% over the last 24 hours) 📈 - **24h Trading Volume:** 65.20 billion USD 💰
- Source: Binance*
Economic Events Impact
- **Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision:** +0.25% 📈 (aimed at controlling inflation) - **US Inflation Rate (December):** 3.2% vs. expected 3.0% ⚠️
- Source: Investing.com*
Technical Analysis
Daily Timeframe
- **Moving Averages (MA and EMA):**
- MA(50): 95,000 USD 📊 - MA(200): 90,000 USD 📉 - EMA(50): 94,500 USD - EMA(200): 89,500 USD
- **Indicators:**
- RSI: 55 (neutral zone) ⚖️ - MACD: above the signal line (bullish signal) 🔼
- **Fibonacci Levels:**
- 38.2%: 92,000 USD - 50%: 90,000 USD - 61.8%: 88,000 USD
- **Bollinger Bands:** expanding (indicating increased volatility) ⚡ - **Elliott Wave Analysis:** potential start of corrective Wave 4 🌊
Hourly Timeframe
- **Moving Averages (MA and EMA):**
- MA(50): 93,800 USD - EMA(50): 93,700 USD
- **Indicators:**
- RSI: 48 (neutral) 🤔 - MACD: below the signal line (short-term bearish signal) 📉
- **Chart Patterns:** "Head and Shoulders" around 93,200 USD 🚨 (potential downside)
Volume and Open Interest Analysis
Open Interest and Liquidations
According to Coinglass data: - **Open Interest:** 10 billion USD (60% long, 40% short) - **Liquidations in the Last 24 Hours:**
- Total: 200 million USD 💥 - Longs: 120 million USD 🔴 - Shorts: 80 million USD 🟢
Options Data
According to Deribit data: - **Next Expiration Date:** January 15, 2025 - **Total Open Interest Volume:** 5 billion USD - **Call/Put Ratio:** 1.2 (predominance of call options) - **Max Pain Level:** 94,000 USD - **Key Strike Prices:**
- 90,000 USD - 95,000 USD - 100,000 USD
Trading Strategy
- **Recommended Position:** Short (Sell) 📉 - **Entry Point:** 93,500 USD - **Take Profit:** 92,000 USD ✅ - **Stop Loss:** 94,500 USD ❌ - **Leverage:** 20x ⚙️
- Profit Calculation:**
- **Position Size:** 1,000 USDT * 20 = 20,000 USDT - **Potential Profit:**
- Price Difference: 93,500 USD - 92,000 USD = 1,500 USD - Profit: 20,000 USDT * (1,500 USD / 93,500 USD) ≈ 321 USD
- **Potential Loss:**
- Price Difference: 94,500 USD - 93,500 USD = 1,000 USD - Loss: 20,000 USDT * (1,000 USD / 93,500 USD) ≈ 214 USD
Conclusion
BTC/USDT remains in a zone of high volatility. It is recommended to closely monitor key price levels and evaluate short-term signals. If the price **breaks above 95,300 USD**, a rise to **98,000 USD** and later **100,000 USD** is possible. If the price drops to **92,000 USD**, a support test at **90,000 USD** may follow.
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