BTC/USDT Futures Trading Analysis – January 10, 2025

BTC/USDT Futures Trading Analysis – January 10, 2025

Introduction

As of January 10, 2025, the BTC/USDT pair shows the following market data:

- **Current spot price**: $93,601.00, indicating a **0.47%** decline in the last 24 hours. - **24-hour trading volume**: $47.93 billion.

• Source: Binance.*

Economic Impact

Recent economic events that may have influenced the BTC/USDT market:

- **US Federal Reserve Decision**: A recent 0.25% interest rate hike aimed at curbing inflation. - **US Inflation Data**: December inflation recorded at 3.2%, exceeding the forecasted 3.0%.

• Source: Investing.com.*

Technical Analysis

Daily Timeframe

- **Moving Averages (MA and EMA)**:

 - MA(50): $95,000
 - MA(200): $90,000
 - EMA(50): $94,500
 - EMA(200): $89,500

- **Indicators**:

 - RSI: 55 (neutral zone)
 - MACD: Histogram above the signal line, indicating potential continuation of the uptrend.

- **Fibonacci Levels**:

 - 38.2%: $92,000
 - 50%: $90,000
 - 61.8%: $88,000

- **Bollinger Bands**: Expanded, indicating increased volatility. - **ATR**: 1,500, confirming high price swings. - **VWAP**: $93,000, close to the current price, indicating fair market value. - **Elliott Wave Analysis**: Possible completion of wave 3 and the start of corrective wave 4. - **Patterns**: "Double Top" formation near **$96,000**, suggesting a potential reversal.

Hourly Timeframe

- **Moving Averages (MA and EMA)**:

 - MA(50): $93,800
 - MA(200): $94,200
 - EMA(50): $93,700
 - EMA(200): $94,100

- **Indicators**:

 - RSI: 48 (neutral zone)
 - MACD: Histogram below the signal line, indicating short-term bearish momentum.

- **Fibonacci Levels**:

 - 38.2%: $93,500
 - 50%: $93,200
 - 61.8%: $92,900

- **Bollinger Bands**: Narrowing, signaling potential upcoming price movement. - **ATR**: 100, indicating moderate short-term volatility. - **VWAP**: $93,600, aligning with the current price. - **Elliott Wave Analysis**: Possible completion of corrective wave B and the start of impulse wave C. - **Patterns**: "Head and Shoulders" pattern with a neckline at **$93,200**, indicating possible further decline.

Volume Analysis

Open Interest and Liquidations

According to Coinglass:

- **Open Interest**: $10 billion, with long positions dominating (60% long / 40% short). - **24-hour liquidations**:

 - Total: $200 million
 - Longs: $120 million
 - Shorts: $80 million

Options Data

According to Deribit:

- **Next Expiration Date**: January 15, 2025 - **Total Open Interest Value**: $5 billion - **Call/Put Ratio**: 1.2 (call options dominate) - **Max Pain Level**: $94,000 - **Key Strike Prices**:

 - $90,000
 - $95,000
 - $100,000

Forecast and Strategy

Based on the analysis above, consider a **short position**.

- **Entry Point**: $93,500 - **Take-Profit**: $92,000 - **Stop-Loss**: $94,500 - **Capital**: 1,000 USDT - **Leverage**: 20x

• • Profit Calculation**:

- **Position Size**: 1,000 USDT * 20 = 20,000 USDT - **Potential Profit**:

 - Price Difference: $93,500 - $92,000 = $1,500
 - Profit: 20,000 USDT * ($1,500 / $93,500) ≈ $321

- **Potential Loss**:

 - Price Difference: $94,500 - $93,500 = $1,000
 - Loss: 20,000 USDT * ($1,000 / $93,500) ≈ $214

Conclusion

BTC/USDT remains in a high-volatility zone. It is advisable to monitor key levels closely and evaluate signals in the short term. A breakout above **$95,300** could signal a return to **$98,000** and further to **$100,000**. A drop to **$92,000** may lead to a retest of support at **$90,000**.

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