BTC/USDT Futures Analysis (November 4, 2024)

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BTC/USDT Futures Analysis (November 4, 2024)

1. Introduction

The current BTC/USDT price on the futures market is between $68,850 and $72,070, with an approximate 0.83% increase over the last 24 hours, indicating a phase of price consolidation. Trading volumes remain high, with daily turnover exceeding 728K BTC. This movement is partly driven by the strengthening of the US dollar following statements from the Federal Reserve regarding potential interest rate hikes in December, creating uncertainty in the crypto market and putting pressure on risky assets.

2. Technical Analysis

Key levels on daily and hourly timeframes:

  • Support: $68,500, $66,700
  • Resistance: $70,500, $72,500

Moving Averages (MA):

  • MA 50: at $68,300, supporting the current uptrend.
  • MA 200: at $67,000, indicating long-term stability.

Indicators:

  • RSI: 62 (close to the overbought zone but without a clear sell signal).
  • MACD: MACD line crossover suggests a possible upward momentum, but caution is advised due to potential corrections.
  • Bollinger Bands: the upper band at $72,500 may indicate a temporary peak.
  • Fibonacci Levels: the key 0.5 retracement level at $69,000 serves as potential support in case of a pullback.

Elliott Wave Analysis: The price is in the third wave of growth, potentially reaching $73,000 before the start of a possible fourth corrective wave.

3. Volume Analysis

  • Open Interest: Open interest stands at around 52% for long positions and 48% for shorts, indicating balanced interest at these levels.
  • Liquidations: Over the last 24 hours, significant positions worth over $6 million have been liquidated, primarily on the long side, increasing market volatility.
  • Options: Large options at the 68,500 and 72,000 USDT levels show interest from major players in these zones.
  • Bitcoin ETF: Volumes remain moderate, reflecting a gradual increase in institutional interest in the market.

4. Forecast and Strategy

Recommended Position: Long with caution, focusing on key support and resistance levels. Action Plan: Entry at $68,700 with a target of $71,500.

  • Capital: 1000 USDT with 20x leverage
  • Stop-loss: $67,500
  • Take-profit: $71,500
  • Expected Return: approximately 40%, with risks up to 10% of total capital.

5. Fundamental Analysis

Macroeconomic conditions remain tense. The strengthening of the US dollar and potential rate hikes by the Federal Reserve put pressure on the crypto market. Additionally, large buy and sell volumes on exchanges such as Binance and Deribit show interest from major players at the $68,000 and $72,000 levels, confirming these as significant areas of interest.

6. Links Úteis e Patrocinados

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