BTC/USDT Futures Trading Analysis - 4 February 2026

1. BTC/USDT Futures Trading Analysis – 4 February 2026

1. 1. 1. Market Overview

As of 4 February 2026, the BTC/USDT futures market is exhibiting moderate bearish momentum. The current spot price stands at **$76,807.58**, while the futures price is slightly lower at **$76,772.10**, indicating mild backwardation. The 24-hour change is **-1.83%**, reflecting a short-term downtrend. Intraday volatility is evident, with the price swinging between a high of **$79,084.29** and a low of **$72,945.50**.

1. 1. 2. Technical Analysis

1. 1. 1. Key Indicators

- **Moving Averages**:

 - MA(50): **$77,442.67** (acting as resistance)  
 - EMA(50): **$77,418.06** (reinforcing resistance)  

- **Relative Strength Index (RSI)**: **48.28** (neutral, leaning slightly bearish) - **MACD**: **-439.22** (bearish momentum persists)

1. 1. 1. Additional Indicators

1. 1. 1. 1. Fibonacci Retracement Levels (from recent swing high to low)

- 23.6%: **$75,200** - 38.2%: **$76,500** - 50%: **$77,800** - 61.8%: **$79,100**

1. 1. 1. 1. Bollinger Bands

- Upper Band: **$81,200** - Middle Band (20MA): **$77,400** - Lower Band: **$73,600** Price is currently testing the lower band, suggesting potential oversold conditions.

1. 1. 1. 1. Average True Range (ATR)

- **$2,450** (high volatility, indicating larger price swings)

1. 1. 1. 1. Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP)

- **$76,900** (price trading below VWAP signals bearish bias)

1. 1. 1. 1. Elliott Wave Analysis

- Current wave structure suggests a corrective **Wave 4** pullback. - If support at **$72,500** holds, a bullish **Wave 5** could follow.

1. 1. 3. Trading Strategy

1. 1. 1. Recommended Position: **Short** (with caution)

1. 1. 1. 1. Entry Points

- Immediate: **$76,700** (current price rejection from MA resistance) - Aggressive: **$77,400** (near MA/EMA confluence resistance)

1. 1. 1. 1. Stop-Loss

- Conservative: **$78,000** (above key resistance) - Tight: **$77,800** (above 50% Fibonacci level)

1. 1. 1. 1. Take-Profit Targets

- TP1: **$75,200** (23.6% Fib level) - TP2: **$73,600** (lower Bollinger Band) - TP3: **$72,500** (strong support zone)

1. 1. 1. 1. Position Sizing & Risk Management

- Risk per trade: **1-2% of capital** - Risk/Reward Ratio: **1:2.5** (conservative) to **1:3.5** (aggressive)

1. 1. 1. Alternative Scenario (If Bullish Reversal Confirmed)

- Long entry above **$78,000** with SL at **$76,500** - TP1: **$79,100** (61.8% Fib) - TP2: **$81,200** (upper Bollinger Band)

1. 1. Final Thoughts

The BTC/USDT futures market is currently in a corrective phase, with key resistance levels holding strong. Traders should monitor the **$72,500–$73,600** support zone for potential reversals. A break below may trigger further downside, while a rebound above **$77,800** could signal renewed bullish momentum.

⚠️ *Disclaimer: This analysis is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. It is recommended to conduct your own research before making investment decisions.* ⚠️

See Also

- Technical Analysis - Futures Trading - Risk Management

References

- TradingView (4 February 2026) - Binance Futures Data

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