BTC/USDT Futures Trading Analysis - 1 February 2026

1. BTC/USDT Futures Trading Analysis - 1 February 2026

1. 1. 1. Market Overview

As of 1 February 2026, the BTC/USDT futures market is experiencing heightened volatility. Key metrics are as follows:

- **Current Spot Price:** $78,840.00 - **Futures Price:** $78,797.80 - **24-Hour Change:** -5.90% - **Intraday High:** $84,050.51 - **Intraday Low:** $75,719.90

The market has seen a sharp decline, with prices retracing from recent highs. The futures price is trading slightly below the spot price, indicating mild bearish sentiment.

1. 1. 2. Technical Analysis

1. 1. 1. Key Indicators

**Technical Indicators**

Indicator	Value
MA(50)	$81,964.28
EMA(50)	$81,731.07
RSI(14)	29.42 (Oversold)
MACD	-1,126.34 (Bearish)

- **Moving Averages (MA & EMA):** The price is trading well below the 50-day MA and EMA, confirming a downtrend. - **Relative Strength Index (RSI):** At 29.42, the RSI suggests BTC is oversold, which may indicate a potential short-term bounce. - **MACD:** The MACD line is deep in negative territory, reinforcing bearish momentum.

1. 1. 1. Additional Indicators

- **Fibonacci Retracement:** From the recent swing high ($84,050.51) to low ($75,719.90), key levels are:

 - 23.6%: $77,800  
 - 38.2%: $78,950  
 - 50%: $79,885  

- **Bollinger Bands:** Price is near the lower band, suggesting possible mean reversion. - **Average True Range (ATR):** High ATR indicates strong volatility. - **Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP):** Current price is below VWAP, signaling bearish bias. - **Elliott Wave Analysis:** The market appears to be in Wave 3 of a bearish impulse, with further downside possible before a corrective Wave 4.

1. 1. 3. Trading Strategy

1. 1. 1. Recommendations

- **Position:** Short (with caution due to oversold RSI) - **Entry Point:** $78,500 - $79,000 (retest of resistance) - **Stop-Loss:** $80,500 (above 38.2% Fib level) - **Take-Profit:** $76,000 (near recent low) - **Position Size:** 1-2% of capital per trade - **Risk/Reward Ratio:** 1:2

1. 1. 1. Alternative Scenario (If Reversal Occurs)

If BTC bounces from oversold conditions: - **Position:** Long - **Entry Trigger:** Break above $79,500 with volume confirmation - **Stop-Loss:** $77,500 - **Take-Profit:** $82,000 (near MA resistance)

⚠️ **Disclaimer:** This analysis is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. It is recommended to conduct your own research before making investment decisions. ⚠️

See Also

- Technical Analysis - Futures Trading - Cryptocurrency Volatility

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