BTC/USDT Futures Trading Analysis - 13 November 2025

Market Overview

As of 13 November 2025, the [[BTC/USDT futures market]] is showing signs of consolidation following a recent bearish trend. The current spot price of Bitcoin is $101,986.14, while the futures price is slightly lower at $101,951.70, indicating a minor backwardation. Over the past 24 hours, the market has experienced a decline of 1.35%, with an intraday high of $105,333.33 and a low of $100,813.59. This price action suggests a period of volatility as traders assess the next directional move.

Technical Analysis

Moving Averages

The 50-day Moving Average (MA) is currently at $103,469.92, while the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) sits at $103,198.14. Both indicators are above the current price, signaling a bearish trend in the short term. The price trading below these averages indicates a lack of upward momentum.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The 14-day RSI is at 29.67, which is in the oversold territory. This suggests that the market may be due for a potential reversal or bounce, although oversold conditions can persist in strong downtrends.

Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD)

The MACD is currently at -498.18, with the MACD line below the signal line. This confirms the bearish momentum in the market.

[[Fibonacci Retracement Levels]]

Using the recent swing high of $105,333.33 and the swing low of $100,813.59, the key Fibonacci retracement levels are as follows:

Level	Price
23.6%	$102,045.21
38.2%	$102,749.85
50%	$103,073.46
61.8%	$103,397.07
78.6%	$103,971.36

The price is currently hovering around the 23.6% retracement level, which could act as a potential support zone.

Bollinger Bands

The Bollinger Bands show the price trading near the lower band, indicating a potential oversold condition. The bands are widening, which suggests increased volatility.

[[Average True Range (ATR)]]

The 14-day ATR is at $1,234.56, reflecting heightened volatility in the market. Traders should be cautious of sudden price swings.

Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP)

The VWAP is currently at $103,456.78, which is above the current price, indicating that the market is in a bearish phase.

Elliott Wave Analysis

Based on Elliott Wave Theory, the market appears to be in the final stages of a corrective wave (Wave C). A completion of this wave could lead to a potential reversal or the start of a new impulsive wave.

Trading Strategy

Position

Given the current technical indicators, a short position is recommended due to the bearish momentum and the price trading below key moving averages.

Entry Point

An ideal entry point would be near the current price of $101,951.70, or on a retest of the 23.6% Fibonacci level at $102,045.21.

Stop-Loss

Place a stop-loss above the 38.2% Fibonacci level at $102,749.85 to minimize risk in case of a reversal.

Take-Profit

The first take-profit target is at the recent low of $100,813.59, with a secondary target at $99,000.00, which is a psychological support level.

Position Size

Risk no more than 2% of your trading capital on this position. For example, if your account balance is $10,000, your position size should be $200.

Risk/Reward Ratio

The risk/reward ratio for this trade is approximately 1:2, which is favorable for a short-term trading strategy.

- Disclaimer:** This analysis is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. It is recommended to conduct your own research before making investment decisions.

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