BTC/USDT Futures Trading Analysis - 4 January 2026

BTC/USDT Futures Trading Analysis - 4 January 2026

1. Market Overview

As of 4 January 2026, the BTC/USDT futures market is exhibiting strong bullish momentum. Key metrics are as follows:

- **Current Spot Price**: $91,418.00 - **Futures Price**: $91,381.80 (slight backwardation) - **24-Hour Change**: +1.72% - **Intraday High**: $91,610.17 - **Intraday Low**: $89,314.01

The market has shown resilience, bouncing from the day's low and approaching the psychological resistance at $92,000.

2. Technical Analysis

Key Indicators

Indicator Summary
Indicator	Value
MA(50)	$90,028.02
EMA(50)	$90,043.35
RSI(14)	87.41 (Overbought)
MACD	412.55 (Bullish Momentum)

Additional Indicators

- **Fibonacci Retracement Levels**:

 - 0.236: $89,500  
 - 0.382: $88,750  
 - 0.5: $88,100  
 - 0.618: $87,450

- **Bollinger Bands**:

 - Upper Band: $92,300  
 - Lower Band: $87,800  
 - Price is hugging the upper band, indicating strong bullish pressure.

- **ATR (14)**: 1,850 (High volatility) - **VWAP**: $90,200 (Supports bullish bias)

Elliott Wave Analysis

The current structure suggests we are in **Wave 3** of an impulsive bullish move. Key targets: - Wave 3 Extension: $93,500 - Wave 4 Pullback: Likely to $89,000–$90,000 before continuation.

3. Trading Strategy

Recommendations

- **Position**: Long (with caution due to overbought RSI) - **Entry Zone**: $90,800–$91,200 - **Stop-Loss**: $89,000 (below key Fibonacci support) - **Take-Profit Targets**:

 - TP1: $92,500  
 - TP2: $93,500 (Wave 3 target)

- **Position Size**: 1–2% of capital per trade - **Risk/Reward Ratio**: 1:3 (Conservative)

Alternative Scenario (Bearish Reversal)

If price fails to hold $90,000: - **Short Entry**: Below $89,000 - **Stop-Loss**: $90,500 - **Take-Profit**: $87,000–$86,000

Conclusion

BTC/USDT remains in a strong uptrend, but traders should be cautious of a potential pullback given the overbought RSI. Key levels to watch are $90,000 (support) and $92,500 (resistance).

⚠️ *Disclaimer: This analysis is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. It is recommended to conduct your own research before making investment decisions.* ⚠️

References

- TradingView (2026). BTC/USDT Futures Chart. - CoinMarketCap (2026). BTC Historical Data.

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