BTC/USDT Futures Trading Analysis - 4 December 2025

Market Overview

As of 4 December 2025, the BTC/USDT futures market is displaying a slight bearish momentum, with the futures price trading at $93,324.10, slightly below the spot price of $93,376.41. The 24-hour change stands at -0.28%, indicating a minor pullback after recent gains. The intraday high of $94,150 and low of $91,697 suggest a relatively tight trading range, reflecting cautious market sentiment.

Technical Analysis

Moving Averages

The 50-day Moving Average (MA) is currently at $91,346.38, while the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is at $91,733.39. Both indicators are below the current price, suggesting a bullish trend in the medium term. However, the proximity of the price to these levels indicates potential support zones.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI (14) is at 61.02, which is in the neutral zone but leaning towards overbought territory. This suggests that while there is still room for upward movement, caution is warranted as the market may face resistance.

MACD

The MACD is at 541.86, showing a positive momentum divergence. This aligns with the bullish sentiment indicated by the moving averages.

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

Using the recent swing high of $94,150 and swing low of $91,697, the key Fibonacci retracement levels are as follows: - 23.6%: $92,528.12 - 38.2%: $92,064.67 - 50%: $91,923.50 - 61.8%: $91,782.33

These levels can act as potential support and resistance zones.

Bollinger Bands

The Bollinger Bands show the price currently trading near the upper band, indicating a potential overbought condition. A pullback towards the middle band (20-day MA) around $92,500 could be a healthy retracement.

Average True Range (ATR)

The ATR is at $1,200, suggesting moderate volatility. Traders should adjust their position sizes accordingly to manage risk.

Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP)

The VWAP is currently at $93,000, which is slightly below the current price. This indicates that the market is trading at fair value, with no significant deviation.

Elliott Wave Analysis

Based on Elliott Wave Theory, BTC/USDT appears to be in Wave 3 of an impulsive upward move. This suggests that the current uptrend could continue, but a corrective Wave 4 may follow soon.

Trading Strategy

Position

Given the current technical indicators, a **long position** is recommended, but with caution due to the overbought conditions.

Entry Point

An ideal entry point would be around the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of $92,064.67, where the price may find support.

Stop-Loss

Place a stop-loss at $91,000, just below the recent swing low of $91,697, to minimize potential losses.

Take-Profit

The take-profit target should be set at $95,000, near the psychological resistance level and the projected end of Wave 3.

Position Size

Based on a 2% risk per trade, the position size should be calculated to ensure the stop-loss does not exceed this limit. For example, with a $100,000 account, the position size would be approximately 0.2 BTC.

Risk/Reward Ratio

The risk/reward ratio for this trade is approximately 1:2, which is favorable for managing risk while seeking significant upside potential.

Conclusion

The BTC/USDT futures market on 4 December 2025 is exhibiting a cautiously bullish trend, supported by key technical indicators. While the overall momentum is positive, traders should remain vigilant for potential retracements and adjust their strategies accordingly. Always remember to manage risk and stay updated with market developments.

⚠️ *Disclaimer: This analysis is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. It is recommended to conduct your own research before making investment decisions.* ⚠️

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