BTC/USDT Futures Trading Analysis - 29 November 2025
Market Overview
As of 29 November 2025, the BTC/USDT futures market is showing signs of consolidation after a recent pullback. The current spot price stands at $90,644.33, while the futures price is slightly lower at $90,609.00, indicating a minor discount. The market has experienced a 24-hour change of -1.06%, with an intraday high of $93,092.00 and a low of $90,180.63. This range suggests that volatility remains elevated, and traders are cautiously navigating the price action.
Technical Analysis
Moving Averages
The 50-day Moving Average (MA) is currently at $91,271.90, while the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is at $90,815.74. Both indicators are acting as resistance levels, with the price trading below them, signaling a bearish bias in the short term.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-period RSI is at 26.20, indicating that BTC/USDT is in oversold territory. This could suggest a potential reversal or bounce in the near future, though confirmation from other indicators is necessary.
Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD)
The MACD line is at -134.05, showing a bearish crossover and confirming the current downtrend. The histogram is also in negative territory, reinforcing the bearish momentum.
Fibonacci Retracement
Using the recent swing high of $93,092.00 and the low of $90,180.63, the key Fibonacci retracement levels are: - 23.6%: $90,674.00 - 38.2%: $90,941.00 - 50%: $91,136.00 - 61.8%: $91,331.00
The price is currently hovering near the 23.6% level, which could act as a short-term support.
Bollinger Bands
The Bollinger Bands show the price trading near the lower band, indicating that the market is oversold. The bands are widening, suggesting increased volatility.
Average True Range (ATR)
The 14-period ATR is at $1,200, reflecting heightened price volatility. Traders should adjust their position sizes accordingly to manage risk.
Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP)
The VWAP is at $91,500, which is above the current price, indicating that the market is bearish for the day.
Elliott Wave Analysis
The Elliott Wave pattern suggests that BTC/USDT is in the final stages of a corrective wave (Wave C). A potential reversal could occur if the price finds support near the $90,000 level.
Trading Strategy
Position
Given the oversold conditions and the proximity to key support levels, a short-term long position could be considered, with a focus on a potential bounce.
Entry Point
An ideal entry point would be near the current price of $90,609.00, with a confirmation of a bullish reversal candle.
Stop-Loss
Set a stop-loss at $89,800.00, just below the intraday low, to limit potential losses.
Take-Profit
Aim for a take-profit level at $92,500.00, near the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.
Position Size
Allocate no more than 2% of the trading capital to this position to manage risk effectively.
Risk/Reward Ratio
The risk/reward ratio for this trade is approximately 1:2, offering a favorable balance between potential risk and reward.
⚠️ *Disclaimer: This analysis is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. It is recommended to conduct your own research before making investment decisions.* ⚠️
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