BTC/USDT Futures Trading Analysis - 28 November 2025

BTC/USDT Futures Trading Analysis - 28 November 2025

Market Overview

As of 28 November 2025, the BTC/USDT futures market continues to exhibit a steady upward trend, reflecting cautious optimism among traders. The current spot price stands at $91,150.00, while the futures price is slightly lower at $91,095.30, indicating a minor backwardation. Over the past 24 hours, the market has seen a modest increase of +0.20%, with an intraday high of $91,940.18 and a low of $90,438.43. This price action suggests consolidation within a narrow range, as traders await clearer signals for the next directional move.

Technical Analysis

To gain deeper insights into the market dynamics, let’s examine key technical indicators and tools:

Moving Averages

The 50-day Moving Average (MA) is currently at $89,961.90, while the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is slightly higher at $90,214.79. The price remains above both averages, indicating a bullish trend in the medium term.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 57.25, which suggests that the market is neither overbought nor oversold. This neutral reading aligns with the current consolidation phase.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator shows a value of 253.18, with the MACD line above the signal line. This positive divergence supports the bullish sentiment, though the momentum appears to be weakening.

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

Using the recent swing high ($91,940.18) and swing low ($90,438.43), the key Fibonacci retracement levels are: - 23.6%: $90,786.45 - 38.2%: $90,640.32 - 50%: $90,519.30 - 61.8%: $90,398.28

The price is currently hovering around the 38.2% level, which could act as a support zone.

Bollinger Bands

The Bollinger Bands show the price trading near the upper band, with the upper band at $92,150.00 and the lower band at $88,850.00. This indicates that the market is testing resistance levels, and a breakout could lead to further upward movement.

Average True Range (ATR)

The Average True Range (ATR) is currently at 1,200.00, reflecting moderate volatility. This suggests that price swings are within a predictable range, providing opportunities for strategic entries and exits.

Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP)

The Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) is at $90,950.00, which is slightly below the current futures price. This indicates that the market is fairly valued, with no significant overextension.

Elliott Wave Analysis

The Elliott Wave Theory suggests that Bitcoin is in the third wave of a five-wave bullish pattern. The recent consolidation aligns with a minor corrective wave (Wave 4), which could be followed by a final upward push (Wave 5) targeting new highs.

Trading Strategy

Based on the technical analysis, here are my trading recommendations:

Position

Long

Entry Point

$90,500.00 (near the 50% Fibonacci retracement level)

Stop-Loss

$89,800.00 (below the 61.8% Fibonacci level and the 50-day MA)

Take-Profit

$93,000.00 (near the upper Bollinger Band and projected Wave 5 target)

Position Size

Allocate 2-3% of your portfolio to this trade to manage risk effectively.

Risk/Reward Ratio

The risk/reward ratio is approximately 1:2.5, providing a favorable setup for potential gains.

Conclusion

The BTC/USDT futures market is currently in a consolidation phase, with bullish indicators suggesting a potential upward breakout. Traders should monitor key levels and indicators closely to capitalize on the next move. As always, risk management is crucial to navigate the inherent volatility of the crypto market.

⚠️ *Disclaimer: This analysis is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. It is recommended to conduct your own research before making investment decisions.* ⚠️

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