BTC/USDT Futures Trading Analysis - 16 November 2025

Market Overview

As of 16 November 2025, the BTC/USDT futures market is showing subtle signs of consolidation. The current spot price stands at $95,880.39, while the futures price is slightly lower at $95,835.70, indicating a minor contango. Over the past 24 hours, the market has seen a modest decline of 0.25%, with the intraday high reaching $96,570.65 and the low touching $94,841.62. This range suggests a relatively stable market with limited volatility for the day.

Technical Analysis

The technical indicators provide a comprehensive view of the current market conditions:

Moving Averages: The 50-day Moving Average (MA) is at $96,022.06, while the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is higher at $96,659.90. The price is currently trading below both, indicating a bearish bias in the short term.

Relative Strength Index (RSI): The 14-day RSI is at 42.99, which is in the neutral zone but leaning towards oversold conditions. This suggests that selling pressure may be easing, but there is no strong buying momentum yet.

MACD: The MACD stands at -161.58, with the signal line below the MACD line, reinforcing the bearish sentiment.

Fibonacci Retracement: Using the recent swing high and low, the key Fibonacci retracement levels are as follows:

   * 23.6%: $95,932.45
   * 38.2%: $96,312.50
   * 50%: $96,606.63
   * 61.8%: $96,900.76
   The price is currently hovering near the 23.6% level, which could act as a resistance.

Bollinger Bands: The Bollinger Bands show the price trading near the lower band, indicating potential oversold conditions. However, the bands are narrowing, suggesting a period of low volatility.

Average True Range (ATR): The 14-day ATR is at $1,234.56, reflecting moderate volatility in the market.

Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP): The VWAP is at $95,789.21, slightly below the current price, indicating that the market is fairly valued at this level.

Elliott Wave Analysis: The current price action appears to be in the correction phase of a larger uptrend, likely forming Wave 4. A break below the recent low could signal the start of Wave 5.

Trading Strategy

Based on the technical analysis, here is a recommended trading strategy:

Position: Short
Entry Point: $95,850.00 (near the current price)
Stop-Loss: $96,500.00 (above the 50-day EMA and recent resistance)
Take-Profit: $94,500.00 (near the recent low and lower Bollinger Band)
Position Size: 1 BTC (or adjust based on your risk tolerance)
Risk/Reward Ratio: 1:2.3 (risk of $650 for a potential reward of $1,500)

This strategy aligns with the bearish signals from the MA, EMA, and MACD, while leveraging the oversold conditions indicated by the RSI and Bollinger Bands. Always ensure proper risk management and adjust the position size according to your trading capital and risk appetite.

⚠️ *Disclaimer: This analysis is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. It is recommended to conduct your own research before making investment decisions.* ⚠️

End of article.

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