BTC/USDT Futures Trading Analysis - 12 November 2025
Market Overview
As of 12 November 2025, the BTC/USDT futures market is showing signs of consolidation after a recent downtrend. The current spot price of Bitcoin stands at $103401.41, while the futures price is slightly lower at $103359.80, indicating a minor backwardation. Over the past 24 hours, the market has experienced a decline of 1.76%, with an intraday high of $105758.88 and a low of $102476.09. This suggests heightened volatility and a bearish sentiment in the short term.
Technical Analysis
To gain a deeper understanding of the market dynamics, let’s examine key technical indicators and tools:
| Indicator | Value |
|---|---|
| MA(50) | $104979.15 |
| EMA(50) | $104190.61 |
| RSI (14) | 32.81 |
| MACD | -522.15 |
- Moving Averages:** The 50-day MA ($104979.15) and EMA ($104190.61) are both above the current price, indicating a bearish trend. The price is struggling to break above these levels, reinforcing the resistance.
- RSI:** The RSI at 32.81 suggests that Bitcoin is nearing oversold territory but has not yet entered it. This could indicate potential for further downside before a reversal.
- MACD:** The MACD is deeply negative at -522.15, confirming strong bearish momentum.
- Fibonacci Retracement Levels:** Using the recent swing high of $105758.88 and low of $102476.09, the key Fibonacci levels are:
- 23.6%: $103757.52 - 38.2%: $104184.88 - 50%: $104617.48 These levels act as potential resistance areas for any upward retracement.
- Bollinger Bands:** The price is hovering near the lower Bollinger Band, indicating oversold conditions. However, a break below this level could signal further declines.
- ATR (Average True Range):** The ATR is elevated at $3281.76, reflecting high volatility and potential for large price swings.
- VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price):** The VWAP is at $104567.34, above the current price, suggesting bearish sentiment in the intraday session.
- Elliott Wave Analysis:** The market appears to be in Wave 3 of a larger bearish impulse wave, targeting lower levels before a corrective Wave 4 rebound.
Trading Strategy
Based on the above analysis, here are my recommendations:
- Position:** Short
- Entry Point:** $103300 (near the current price)
- Stop-Loss:** $105800 (above the intraday high)
- Take-Profit:** $100000 (psychological support level)
- Position Size:** 1-2% of total portfolio value
- Risk/Reward Ratio:** 1:2
This strategy leverages the bearish momentum and key resistance levels while managing risk effectively.
⚠️ *Disclaimer: This analysis is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. It is recommended to conduct your own research before making investment decisions.* ⚠️
Recommended Crypto Futures Exchanges
| Exchange | Futures Features | Sign-Up |
|---|---|---|
| Binance Futures | Up to 125x leverage, USDⓈ-M contracts | Register Now - CashBack 10% SPOT and Futures |
| Bybit Futures | Inverse perpetual contracts | Start Trading |
| BingX Futures | Copy-trading for futures | Join BingX |
| Bitget Futures | USDT-margined contracts | Open Account |
Join the community
Subscribe to our Telegram channel @strategybin. The most favorable exchange rate for VISA to cryptocurrencies..