BTC/USDT Futures Trading Analysis - 24 09 2025

BTC/USDT Futures Trading Analysis - 24 September 2025

1. Market Overview

As of September 24, 2025, the BTC/USDT futures market shows moderate bearish momentum. The current spot price stands at **$111,521.46**, while the futures price is slightly lower at **$111,496.40**, indicating mild backwardation. The market has seen a **1.02% decline** over the past 24 hours, with an intraday high of **$113,290.50** and a low of **$111,042.66**. This suggests consolidation after a recent pullback from higher levels.

Key Observations: - Spot-Futures Spread: **-$25.06** (Backwardation) - Volume: Moderate, with increased selling pressure near highs.

2. Technical Analysis

Moving Averages


Indicator	Value
class="wikitable"
MA(50)	$112,615.69
EMA(50)	$112,848.38

The price is trading below both the MA(50) and EMA(50), confirming short-term bearish bias.

Momentum Indicators


Indicator	Value
class="wikitable"
RSI(14)	33.87 (Oversold)
MACD	-279.37 (Bearish)

- The RSI(14) is near oversold territory but hasn’t yet signaled a reversal. - The MACD histogram is negative, reinforcing bearish momentum.

Additional Indicators

- Fibonacci Retracement** (from recent swing high $120,000 to low $108,000):

- 23.6%: **$110,800** (Support) - 38.2%: **$112,600** (Resistance) - 50%: **$114,000** (Key Resistance)

- Bollinger Bands**:

- Price is near the lower band, suggesting potential for a minor bounce or continuation of the downtrend.

- ATR (14)**: **$2,400** (High volatility)
- VWAP**: **$112,200** (Price below VWAP indicates bearish intraday bias)

- Elliott Wave Analysis**:

- The market appears to be in **Wave C** of a corrective A-B-C pattern, targeting **$108,000** before a potential reversal.

3. Trading Strategy

Recommendation

- **Position**: Short (with caution due to oversold RSI) - **Entry Zone**: **$111,500 - $112,000** - **Stop-Loss**: **$113,300** (Above recent high) - **Take-Profit Targets**:

 - TP1: **$110,000**  
 - TP2: **$108,500** (Fibonacci extension level)

- **Position Size**: 1-2% of capital per trade - **Risk/Reward Ratio**: 1:2.5

Alternative Scenario

If the price holds above **$110,800** (23.6% Fib), a cautious long could be considered with: - **Entry**: **$110,800** - **Stop-Loss**: **$109,500** - **Take-Profit**: **$112,600** (38.2% Fib)

Final Thoughts

The BTC/USDT futures market is currently bearish, but oversold conditions may lead to a short-term bounce. Traders should monitor key levels ($110,800 support and $112,600 resistance) for confirmation of the next move.

⚠️ *Disclaimer: This analysis is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. It is recommended to conduct your own research before making investment decisions.* ️

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