BTC/USDT Futures Trading Analysis - 01 09 2025

BTC/USDT Futures Trading Analysis - 01 09 2025

1. Market Overview

As of September 01, 2025, the BTC/USDT futures market is showing signs of consolidation after a recent downward correction. The current spot price stands at $107,611.13, while the futures price is slightly lower at $107,580.20, indicating a minor backwardation. Over the past 24 hours, the price has declined by 1.11%, with an intraday high of $109,237.51 and a low of $107,425.42. This range suggests that the market is experiencing moderate volatility, with sellers currently dominating the short-term trend.

2. Technical Analysis

The following technical indicators provide deeper insights into the current market structure:

Moving Averages

The 50-day MA(50) is at $108,642.22, while the 50-day EMA(50) is at $108,828.29. Both indicators are above the current price, signaling a bearish trend in the short to medium term.

Relative Strength Index

The RSI (14) is at 34.72, which is nearing the oversold territory. This suggests that the selling pressure may be exhausting, but the trend remains bearish until confirmed otherwise.

MACD

The MACD is at -220.66, with the histogram showing a widening negative divergence. This reinforces the bearish momentum in the market.

Fibonacci Retracement

Using the recent swing high of $109,237.51 and the swing low of $107,425.42, the key Fibonacci retracement levels are as follows:

Level

Price

23.6%

$107,825.42

38.2%

$108,125.42

50%

$108,331.46

61.8%

$108,537.51

The price is currently testing the 23.6% retracement level, which may act as resistance.

Bollinger Bands

The Bollinger Bands show the price trading near the lower band, indicating that the market is oversold. However, a break below the lower band could signal further downside.

Average True Range

The ATR is at 1,200, suggesting moderate volatility. Traders should be cautious of sudden price movements.

Volume Weighted Average Price

The VWAP is at $108,100, which is above the current price. This indicates that the market is trading at a discount, favoring sellers.

Elliott Wave Analysis

The Elliott Wave Theory suggests that the market is in wave 3 of a bearish impulse wave. This wave is typically the strongest and most extended, aligning with the current downtrend.

3. Trading Strategy

Based on the technical analysis, here are my recommendations for BTC/USDT futures trading:

Position

Short position due to the bearish trend and negative momentum.

Entry Point

Enter near the current price of $107,580.20 or on a retest of the 38.2% Fibonacci level at $108,125.42.

Stop-Loss

Set a stop-loss at $109,237.51 (above the intraday high) to protect against a sudden reversal.

Take-Profit

Aim for a take-profit level at $106,000, which aligns with the next psychological support level.

Position Size

Use a position size of 2-3% of your trading capital to manage risk effectively.

Risk/Reward Ratio

The risk/reward ratio is approximately 1:2, providing a favorable setup for the trade.

Conclusion

The BTC/USDT futures market is currently in a bearish phase, with technical indicators supporting a short position. However, traders should remain vigilant and monitor key levels such as the Fibonacci retracement and Bollinger Bands for potential reversals. Always adhere to proper risk management principles to safeguard your capital.

⚠️ *Disclaimer: This analysis is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. It is recommended to conduct your own research before making investment decisions.* ⚠️

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