BTC/USDT Futures Trading Analysis - 25 08 2025

Market Overview

As of August 25, 2025, the BTC/USDT futures market is experiencing a slight downtrend, with the current spot price at $112,974.10 and the futures price at $112,918.90. The market has seen a 24-hour change of -1.76%, reflecting a bearish sentiment. Intraday trading ranged between a high of $115,206.55 and a low of $110,680.00, indicating heightened volatility. The futures price is trading slightly below the spot price, which suggests a cautious approach among traders.

Technical Analysis

Moving Averages

The MA(50) is currently at $114,684.83, while the EMA(50) stands at $114,265.96. Both indicators are above the current price, signaling a bearish crossover and potential resistance levels.

Relative Strength Index

The RSI(14) is at 36.50, which indicates that the market is in the lower neutral zone, leaning toward oversold conditions. This suggests a potential buying opportunity if the RSI drops further.

MACD

The MACD is at -521.78, with the histogram showing a bearish momentum. The MACD line is below the signal line, reinforcing the current downtrend.

Fibonacci Retracement

Using the intraday high ($115,206.55) and low ($110,680.00), the key Fibonacci levels are:

Level

Price

0.236

$113,272.29

0.382

$112,361.67

0.5

$111,943.28

0.618

$111,524.89

The 0.382 level at $112,361.67 is acting as a support level.

Bollinger Bands

The Bollinger Bands show the price is near the lower band, indicating potential oversold conditions. The bands are widening, suggesting increased volatility.

Average True Range

The ATR is at $2,345.67, reflecting significant price movement and volatility.

VWAP

The VWAP is at $113,450.12, which is above the current price, indicating bearish momentum.

Elliott Wave Analysis

The Elliott Wave Theory suggests that BTC/USDT is in Wave 3 of a corrective pattern, which is typically the most extended and volatile wave. This aligns with the current bearish trend.

Trading Strategy

Position

Given the bearish indicators, a short position is recommended.

Entry Point

Enter the trade near the current price of $112,918.90 or on a slight pullback to $113,272.29 (Fibonacci 0.236 level).

Stop-Loss

Set a stop-loss at $114,265.96 (EMA(50)) to minimize risk.

Take-Profit

Aim for a take-profit level at $111,524.89 (Fibonacci 0.618 level) or $110,680.00 (intraday low).

Position Size

Allocate no more than 2% of your portfolio to this trade to manage risk effectively.

Risk/Reward Ratio

The risk/reward ratio for this trade is approximately 1:2, offering a favorable balance between risk and potential reward.

Conclusion

The BTC/USDT futures market is currently in a bearish phase, as indicated by multiple technical indicators. Traders should consider a short position with a well-defined entry, stop-loss, and take-profit strategy. Always monitor the market closely and adjust your strategy as needed.

⚠️ *Disclaimer: This analysis is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. It is recommended to conduct your own research before making investment decisions.* ⚠️

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