BTC/USDT Futures Trading Analysis - 15 08 2025
BTC/USDT Futures Trading Analysis - 15 August 2025
1. Market Overview
As of August 15, 2025, the BTC/USDT futures market is showing notable volatility, with the current futures price at **$118,940.30**, slightly below the spot price of **$118,988.69**. The market has seen a **-3.26%** decline over the past 24 hours, with an intraday high of **$123,428.60** and a low of **$117,180.00**. This suggests a bearish intraday trend, though key support levels are holding for now.
2. Technical Analysis
Moving Averages
| class="wikitable" | |
| Indicator | Value |
|---|---|
| MA(50) | $120,438.43 |
| EMA(50) | $119,802.91 |
The price is currently trading below both the MA(50) and EMA(50), indicating short-term bearish momentum.
Oscillators
| class="wikitable" | |
| Indicator | Value |
|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 59.03 |
| MACD | -672.95 |
The RSI is in neutral territory (59.03), neither overbought nor oversold, while the MACD remains negative, reinforcing bearish pressure.
Additional Indicators
- **Fibonacci Retracement** (from recent swing high to low):
- Key levels: 23.6% ($119,850), 38.2% ($121,200), 50% ($122,300) - Price is hovering near the 23.6% retracement, a critical short-term resistance.
- **Bollinger Bands**:
- Price is near the lower band, suggesting potential oversold conditions.
- **ATR (14)**:
- High volatility with an ATR of ~$3,200, indicating large price swings.
- **VWAP**:
- Current VWAP is at $119,500, acting as dynamic resistance.
- **Elliott Wave Analysis**:
- The market appears to be in a corrective Wave 4, with potential for a final Wave 5 push downward before a reversal.
3. Trading Strategy
Recommendation
Given the current technical setup, a **short position** is favored with the following parameters:
- **Entry Point**: $118,800 - $119,200 (near minor resistance)
- **Stop-Loss**: $120,500 (above EMA(50) and Fibonacci 23.6%)
- **Take-Profit Targets**:
- TP1: $117,200 (recent low) - TP2: $115,000 (next major support)
- **Position Size**: 1-2% of capital per trade
- **Risk/Reward Ratio**: 1:2.5 (favorable)
Alternative Scenario
If price breaks above $120,500 with strong volume, consider a **long position** targeting $122,300 (50% Fibonacci).
⚠️ *Disclaimer: This analysis is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. It is recommended to conduct your own research before making investment decisions.* ️
See Also
End of analysis.
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