BTC/USDT Futures Trading Analysis - 04 08 2025

BTC/USDT Futures Trading Analysis - 04 August 2025

1. Market Overview

As of August 04, 2025, the BTC/USDT futures market is showing bullish momentum, with the current spot price at **$114,356.67** and the futures price slightly lower at **$114,298.10**, indicating mild backwardation. The market has gained **+1.61%** in the last 24 hours, with an intraday high of **$114,799.97** and a low of **$111,920.00**, suggesting strong buying interest near the lower range.

2. Technical Analysis

Key Indicators

Indicator Summary
Indicator	Value	Interpretation
MA(50)	$113,574.99	Bullish (Price above MA)
EMA(50)	$114,047.32	Bullish (Price above EMA)
RSI (14)	71.56	Overbought (Caution advised)
MACD	233.82	Bullish momentum

Additional Indicators

**Fibonacci Retracement Levels (from recent swing low to high):**

 * 23.6%: **$113,200.00**  
 * 38.2%: **$112,450.00**  
 * 50%: **$111,860.00**  
 * 61.8%: **$111,270.00**  
 * Current price is holding above the 23.6% level, indicating strength.

**Bollinger Bands:**

 * Upper Band: **$115,400.00**  
 * Lower Band: **$111,100.00**  
 * Price is near the upper band, suggesting potential resistance.

**ATR (14):** **$2,800.00**

 * High volatility, favoring breakout strategies.

**VWAP:** **$113,900.00**

 * Price above VWAP supports bullish bias.

**Elliott Wave Analysis:**

 * Likely in Wave 3 of an impulsive uptrend.  
 * Next target: **$116,500.00** (Wave 3 extension).

3. Trading Strategy

Recommendation

Given the strong bullish momentum but overbought RSI, traders should consider a **long position** on a pullback to key support levels.

**Entry Zone:** **$113,200 - $113,500** (23.6% Fib & MA(50) confluence)
**Stop-Loss:** **$111,800** (below 38.2% Fib)
**Take-Profit Targets:**

 * TP1: **$114,800** (recent high)  
 * TP2: **$116,500** (Elliott Wave target)

**Position Size:** 1-2% of capital per trade
**Risk/Reward Ratio:** 1:3 (favorable)

Alternative Scenario

If price breaks below **$111,800**, consider a **short position** targeting **$110,000** (50% Fib level).

Final Thoughts

The BTC/USDT futures market remains bullish, but traders should watch for overbought conditions and potential pullbacks. Key levels to monitor are **$113,200** (support) and **$115,400** (resistance).

⚠️ *Disclaimer: This analysis is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. It is recommended to conduct your own research before making investment decisions.* ⚠️

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