BTC/USDT Futures Trading Analysis - 31 07 2025
BTC/USDT Futures Trading Analysis - 31 July 2025
1. Market Overview
As of July 31, 2025, the BTC/USDT futures market is showing moderate bullish momentum. The current spot price stands at **$118,439.55**, while the futures price is slightly lower at **$118,391.10**, indicating a minor backwardation. Over the past 24 hours, BTC has gained **+0.38%**, with an intraday high of **$118,792.00** and a low of **$115,796.23**. The market appears to be consolidating after a recent uptrend, with traders cautiously evaluating the next directional move.
2. Technical Analysis
Moving Averages
The **50-day Moving Average (MA)** is at **$118,027.92**, while the **50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA)** sits at **$117,978.11**. The price is currently trading above both, suggesting a bullish bias in the medium term.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The **14-day RSI** is at **56.35**, indicating neutral momentum with a slight bullish inclination. There is no overbought or oversold condition yet.
MACD
The **MACD** line shows a value of **48.32**, with the histogram above the signal line, reinforcing the bullish momentum.
Additional Indicators
- **Fibonacci Retracement (from recent swing low to high):**
| Level | Price ($) |
|---|---|
| 23.6% | 116,450.20 |
| 38.2% | 115,200.75 |
| 50% | 114,100.50 |
| 61.8% | 113,000.25 |
The price is holding above the 23.6% retracement level, suggesting strength.
- **Bollinger Bands:**
The price is near the upper band, indicating potential short-term overextension, but no clear reversal signal yet.
- **Average True Range (ATR):**
The **ATR (14)** is at **$2,450**, suggesting moderate volatility.
- **Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP):**
The **VWAP** is at **$117,850**, acting as dynamic support.
- **Elliott Wave Analysis:**
The market appears to be in **Wave 3** of an impulsive uptrend, with a potential target near **$122,000** before a corrective Wave 4.
3. Trading Strategy
Recommendation
Given the bullish structure, a **long position** is favored, but with caution due to near-term resistance.
Entry Point
Optimal entry: **$118,000 - $118,200** (near MA/EMA support).
Stop-Loss
Place stop-loss below **$116,800** (below the 23.6% Fib level and recent swing low).
Take-Profit
First target: **$120,000** (psychological resistance). Second target: **$122,000** (Elliott Wave projection).
Position Size & Risk/Reward
- **Position Size:** 1-2% of capital per trade.
- **Risk/Reward Ratio:** 1:3 (conservative).
Final Thoughts
The BTC/USDT futures market remains bullish, but traders should monitor key levels for confirmation. A break below **$116,800** could invalidate the bullish thesis, while a sustained move above **$119,000** may accelerate upward momentum.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This analysis is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. It is recommended to conduct your own research before making investment decisions. ⚠️
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