BTC/USDT Futures Trading Analysis - 21 07 2025
BTC/USDT Futures Trading Analysis - 21 July 2025
Market Overview
As of July 21, 2025, the BTC/USDT futures market is showing moderate bullish momentum. The current spot price stands at $118,599.99, while the futures price is slightly lower at $118,564.50, indicating a minor backwardation. Over the past 24 hours, the price has increased by +0.64%, with an intraday high of $118,856.80 and a low of $116,467.02. This suggests a relatively stable market with a slight upward bias.
Technical Analysis
The technical indicators provide a comprehensive view of the market dynamics:
- Moving Averages*:
- The 50-day Moving Average (MA) is at $118,033.49, acting as a key support level. - The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is slightly higher at $118,090.11, confirming the bullish sentiment.
- Relative Strength Index (RSI)*:
- The 14-period RSI is at 51.77, indicating a neutral market with no immediate overbought or oversold conditions.
- Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD)*:
- The MACD is at 1.90, showing a bullish crossover and suggesting potential upward momentum.
- Fibonacci Retracement Levels*:
Based on the recent swing low of $116,467.02 and the high of $118,856.80, the key Fibonacci levels are: - 23.6%: $117,942.45 - 38.2%: $117,667.29 - 50%: $117,441.91 - 61.8%: $117,216.53
- Bollinger Bands*:
The price is hovering near the middle band, indicating a balanced market. The upper band is at $119,200.00, and the lower band is at $116,800.00, providing potential resistance and support levels.
- Average True Range (ATR)*:
The ATR is at 1,200 points, suggesting moderate volatility, which is typical for BTC/USDT futures.
- Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP)*:
The VWAP is at $118,300.00, acting as a key level for assessing fair value.
- Elliott Wave Analysis*:
The market appears to be in Wave 3 of an impulsive bullish structure, targeting a potential Wave 5 high near $120,000.
Trading Strategy
Based on the analysis, here are my recommendations:
- Position*: Long
- Entry Point*: $118,500.00 (near the current price)
- Stop-Loss*: $117,000.00 (below the 50-day MA and recent swing low)
- Take-Profit*: $120,000.00 (targeting the upper Bollinger Band and Elliott Wave projection)
- Position Size*: 5% of portfolio capital
- Risk/Reward Ratio*: 1:3
This strategy leverages the bullish momentum while maintaining a disciplined risk management approach.
Conclusion
The BTC/USDT futures market is showing signs of a potential upward move, supported by key technical indicators. However, traders should remain cautious and monitor key levels for confirmation.
⚠️ *Disclaimer: This analysis is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. It is recommended to conduct your own research before making investment decisions.* ⚠️
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