BTC/USDT Futures Trading Analysis - 18 07 2025
BTC/USDT Futures Trading Analysis - 18 July 2025
1. Market Overview
As of July 18, 2025, the BTC/USDT futures market is showing moderate bullish momentum. The current spot price of Bitcoin stands at $119,848.43, while the futures price is slightly lower at $119,847.70, indicating a minimal premium. Over the past 24 hours, the price has increased by 1.06%, with an intraday high of $120,998.71 and a low of $117,453.57. This suggests a relatively stable trading range but with a slight upward bias.
2. Technical Analysis
Moving Averages
The 50-day Moving Average (MA) is currently at $118,874.30, while the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is slightly higher at $118,963.28. The price is trading above both these levels, indicating a bullish trend in the medium term.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI is at 58.44, which is in the neutral zone but leaning towards bullish territory. This suggests that while there is no immediate overbought condition, buyers are gradually gaining control.
MACD
The MACD line is at 400.05, showing a positive divergence from the signal line. This reinforces the bullish momentum observed in the market.
Fibonacci Retracement
Using the recent swing high of $120,998.71 and the swing low of $117,453.57, the key Fibonacci Retracement levels are:
- 23.6%: $118,543.21
- 38.2%: $118,123.45
- 50%: $117,776.14
- 61.8%: $117,428.83
The price is currently hovering above the 38.2% retracement level, indicating bullish sentiment.
Bollinger Bands
The Bollinger Bands show the upper band at $121,234.56 and the lower band at $116,712.34. The price is trading near the middle band, suggesting a balance between buying and selling pressure.
Average True Range (ATR)
The 14-day ATR is at $1,234.56, indicating moderate volatility. This suggests that while the market is not extremely volatile, there is enough movement for trading opportunities.
Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP)
The VWAP is currently at $119,123.45, and the price is trading above this level, indicating a bullish bias.
Elliott Wave Analysis
Based on Elliott Wave Theory, the market appears to be in Wave 3 of an impulsive upward movement. This suggests that the bullish trend is likely to continue in the short to medium term.
3. Trading Strategy
Position
Given the bullish indicators, a **long position** is recommended.
Entry Point
An optimal entry point would be around the current price of $119,847.70 or on a pullback to the 38.2% Fibonacci level at $118,123.45.
Stop-Loss
A stop-loss should be placed below the 61.8% Fibonacci level at $117,428.83 to minimize risk.
Take-Profit
The first take-profit target should be set at the recent intraday high of $120,998.71, with a secondary target at the upper Bollinger Band level of $121,234.56.
Position Size
A position size of 2-3% of the total portfolio is recommended to manage risk effectively.
Risk/Reward Ratio
The risk/reward ratio for this trade is approximately 1:2, which is favorable for a long position.
Conclusion
The BTC/USDT futures market is exhibiting bullish signals across multiple technical indicators. Traders should consider entering a long position with a well-defined risk management strategy. However, it is crucial to monitor market conditions closely and adjust the strategy if necessary.
⚠️ *Disclaimer: This analysis is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. It is recommended to conduct your own research before making investment decisions.* ⚠️
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