BTC/USDT Futures Trading Analysis - 08 07 2025

BTC/USDT Futures Trading Analysis - 08 July 2025

1. Market Overview

As of July 08, 2025, the BTC/USDT futures market is showing signs of consolidation after a recent pullback. Here are the key metrics:

**Current Spot Price:** $107,759.99
**Futures Price:** $107,731.50 (slightly below spot, indicating mild bearish sentiment)
**24-Hour Change:** -1.49%
**Intraday High:** $109,700.00
**Intraday Low:** $107,429.57

The market has been trading in a tight range, with resistance near $109,700 and support around $107,400. The slight backwardation (futures price below spot) suggests caution among traders.

2. Technical Analysis

Key Indicators

Indicator Summary
Indicator	Value	Interpretation
MA(50)	$108,472.88	Resistance level
EMA(50)	$108,384.41	Short-term downtrend
RSI (14)	38.56	Approaching oversold
MACD	-202.08	Bearish momentum

Additional Indicators

**Fibonacci Retracement (from recent swing high $112,500 to low $105,200):**

 * 23.6%: $107,806  
 * 38.2%: $108,066  
 * 50%: $108,850 (key resistance)

**Bollinger Bands:** Price is near the lower band ($107,200), suggesting potential for a bounce.
**Average True Range (ATR):** 1,850 – Volatility remains elevated.
**Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP):** $108,120 – A break above this could signal bullish reversal.
**Elliott Wave Analysis:** Currently in Wave 4 correction; Wave 5 upside potential if support holds.

3. Trading Strategy

Given the current technical setup, here’s a strategic approach:

Recommendation

**Position:** Short-term **long** (if support holds)
**Entry Zone:** $107,400 - $107,600
**Stop-Loss:** Below $106,800 (key support breach)
**Take-Profit Targets:**

 * TP1: $108,400 (MA/EMA confluence)  
 * TP2: $109,700 (intraday high)  
 * TP3: $110,500 (next resistance)

**Position Size:** 1-2% of capital per trade
**Risk/Reward Ratio:** 1:2.5 (conservative)

Alternative Scenario

If price breaks below $106,800, consider a **short** with:

**Entry:** $106,500
**Stop-Loss:** $107,200
**Take-Profit:** $105,200 (previous low)

Final Thoughts

The market is at a critical juncture, with oversold RSI and strong Fibonacci support. A bounce from current levels could present a buying opportunity, but a breakdown would confirm further downside. Always manage risk and adjust positions as new data emerges.

⚠️ Disclaimer: This analysis is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. It is recommended to conduct your own research before making investment decisions. ⚠️

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