BTC/USDT Futures Trading Analysis - 04 07 2025

BTC/USDT Futures Trading Analysis - 04 July 2025

1. Market Overview

As of July 04, 2025, the BTC/USDT futures market is showing moderate bullish momentum after a period of consolidation. The current spot price stands at **$109,199.99**, while the futures price is slightly lower at **$109,152.00**, indicating a minor backwardation. The 24-hour change is **+0.38%**, with an intraday high of **$110,529.18** and a low of **$108,566.14**.

Key observations:

The market is recovering from a recent dip, as reflected in the RSI nearing oversold territory.
Futures prices are trading below the spot price, suggesting cautious sentiment among traders.

2. Technical Analysis

Moving Averages

Moving Averages
Indicator	Value
class="wikitable"
MA(50)	$108,802.61
EMA(50)	$108,865.90

The price is currently above both the MA(50) and EMA(50), indicating a potential bullish crossover.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum Indicators
Indicator	Value
class="wikitable"
RSI (14)	30.98 (Approaching oversold)
MACD	146.34 (Bullish momentum building)

The RSI suggests the asset is nearing oversold conditions, which could precede a bounce. The MACD histogram is positive, reinforcing bullish momentum.

Additional Indicators

**Fibonacci Retracement** (from recent swing high $110,529.18 to low $108,566.14):

 * 23.6%: $108,893.45  
 * 38.2%: $109,097.22  
 * 50%: $109,254.66  
 * 61.8%: $109,412.10

**Bollinger Bands**: Price is near the lower band, suggesting a possible reversal.
**ATR (14)**: $1,245.33 (Volatility remains elevated).
**VWAP**: $109,021.87 (Price is above VWAP, supporting bullish bias).
**Elliott Wave Analysis**: The market appears to be in Wave 4 correction, with Wave 5 upside potential.

3. Trading Strategy

Recommendation

Given the technical setup, a **long position** is favored with the following parameters:

Trade Setup
Parameter	Value
class="wikitable"
Entry	$109,000 - $109,200
Stop-Loss	$107,800 (Below recent swing low)
Take-Profit	$111,500 (Near resistance zone)
Position Size	1-2% of capital per trade
Risk/Reward Ratio	1:2.5

Rationale

The RSI near 30 suggests a potential reversal.
MACD supports bullish momentum.
Price holding above MA(50) and EMA(50) reinforces strength.
ATR indicates sufficient volatility for a swing trade.

Final Thoughts

The BTC/USDT futures market shows signs of a bullish continuation, but traders should remain cautious of sudden reversals. Monitoring key levels like $110,500 (resistance) and $108,500 (support) will be crucial.

⚠️ *Disclaimer: This analysis is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. It is recommended to conduct your own research before making investment decisions.* ⚠️

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