BTC/USDT Futures Trading Analysis - 24 04 2025
- BTC/USDT Futures Trading Analysis - 24 April 2025
- Market Overview
As of 24 April 2025, BTC/USDT futures are trading at **$91,990.40**, slightly below the spot price of **$92,029.97**, indicating minor contango. The market has seen a **1.98% decline** over the past 24 hours, with the intraday high reaching **$94,696.05** and the low touching **$91,935.41**. The current price action suggests consolidation with bearish momentum, as reflected in key indicators.
- Technical Analysis
- Key Indicators
| Indicator | Value |
|---|---|
| MA(50) | $92,350.12 |
| EMA(50) | $92,009.95 |
| RSI(14) | 22.51 (Oversold) |
| MACD | -61.33 (Bearish) |
| ATR(14) | 1,243.57 (High Volatility) |
| VWAP | $93,201.83 (Below Current Price) |
- Fibonacci Retracement Levels (From $94,696.05 High to $91,935.41 Low):**
- **23.6%:** $92,627.12 - **38.2%:** $92,946.53 - **50%:** $93,315.73 - **61.8%:** $93,684.93
- Bollinger Bands (20,2):**
- **Upper Band:** $95,780.21 - **Middle Band (SMA20):** $93,201.83 - **Lower Band:** $90,623.45
- Elliott Wave Analysis:**
The current price action suggests we may be in **Wave C** of a corrective ABC pattern following an impulsive uptrend. A break below **$91,500** could confirm further downside towards **$89,000**, while reclaiming **$93,200** may invalidate the bearish scenario.
- Trading Strategy
Given the current technical setup, the following strategy is recommended:
- Position:** **Short** (Aggressive) / **Wait for Rebound to Short** (Conservative)
- **Entry Zone:** $92,600 - $92,800 (Near 23.6% Fib) - **Stop-Loss:** $93,500 (Above 38.2% Fib) - **Take-Profit 1:** $91,500 (Key Support) - **Take-Profit 2:** $90,000 (Psychological Level & Lower Bollinger Band) - **Position Size:** 1-3% of capital per trade - **Risk/Reward Ratio:** 1:2.5 (Conservative) to 1:4 (Aggressive)
- Alternative Long Trade Setup:** If BTC holds above **$91,500** and RSI rebounds from oversold, a long entry at **$91,700** with SL at **$90,800** and TP at **$93,200** could be considered.
- Fundamental Analysis
Recent market dynamics show mixed sentiment: - **Institutional Activity:** No major inflows/outflows reported in recent days, but whale accumulation near $91,000 suggests strong support. - **Macro Factors:** Fed rate decision expectations remain a key driver; any dovish signals may trigger a rebound. - **On-Chain Data:** Exchange reserves are declining, indicating reduced selling pressure.
- Price Prediction:**
- **Bearish Scenario:** Breakdown below $91,500 targets $89,000. - **Bullish Scenario:** Recovery above $93,200 may retest $95,000.
⚠️ **Disclaimer:** This analysis is for informational purposes only. Always conduct your own research before trading.
End of article.
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